Global burden of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: trends and estimates based on mathematical modelling Gwenan M Knight, PhD, C Finn McQuaid,

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Global burden of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: trends and estimates based on mathematical modelling Gwenan M Knight, PhD, C Finn McQuaid, PhD, Peter J Dodd, PhD, Rein M G J Houben, PhD The Lancet Infectious Diseases Volume 19, Issue 8, Pages 903-912 (August 2019) DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30307-X Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Proportion of new cases of tuberculosis disease accounted for by MDR tuberculosis in the nine countries in the WHO South-East Asia region included in our model The blue lines represent the median proportion from 200 model fits to WHO data (the red datapoints; error bars show 95% CIs). The shaded regions represent the 95% uncertainty intervals. Although we estimated the burden of latent MDR tuberculosis in 2014 (hence the cutoff in this figure) the model trend was fitted to all WHO Drug Resistance Surveillance data. MDR=multidrug resistant. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2019 19, 903-912DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30307-X) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Prevalence of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis infection, by WHO region The red line represents the median from 200 model fits. The shaded region represents the 95% uncertainty interval. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2019 19, 903-912DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30307-X) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Estimated worldwide prevalence of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis infection Countries with no data are shown in grey. Equivalent maps for 2035 and 2050 estimates are in the appendix. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2019 19, 903-912DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30307-X) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Prevalence of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis infection in each age group, by WHO region Error bars show 95% uncertainty intervals. The prevalence of latent infection with drug-susceptible tuberculosis is shown in the appendix. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2019 19, 903-912DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30307-X) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions