THE ELECTION of 2018 Change or more of the same? Randall E. Adkins, Ph.D. Associate Dean, College of Arts & Sciences Professor, Department of Political Science 402.554.2624 radkins@unomaha.edu

2018: Continuity or Change? "But if it does happen [impeachment], it's your fault, because you didn't go out to vote. OK? You didn't go out to vote."

Is it time for a change already?

direction of the country In 2018, 40.5% said the country was headed in the right direction and 53.7% said the country was off on the wrong track.

direction of the country In 2018, 40.5% said the country was headed in the right direction and 53.7% said the country was off on the wrong track. In 2010, 22% said the country was headed in the right direction and 75% said the country was off on the wrong track.

direction of the country In 2018, 40.5% said the country was headed in the right direction and 53.7% said the country was off on the wrong track. In 2010, 22% said the country was headed in the right direction and 75% said the country was off on the wrong track. In 2002, 48% said the country was headed in the right direction and 47% said the country was off on the wrong track.

direction of the country Tied on June 11, 2009. Not consistently good since 9/11.

Presidential job approval In 2018, 40.8% approve of the job that President Trump is doing.

Presidential job approval In 2018, 40.8% approve of the job that President Trump is doing. In 2010, 45% approved of the job that President Obama was doing.

Presidential job approval In 2018, 40.8% approve of the job that President Trump is doing. In 2010, 45% approved of the job that President Obama was doing. In 2002, 63% approved of the job that President Bush was doing.

Presidential job approval Hillary Clinton is down from 63% in July

Congressional job approval In 2018,18.3% approve of the job that Congress is doing.

Congressional job approval In 2018,18.3% approve of the job that Congress is doing. In 2010, 17% approved of the job that Congress was doing.

Congressional job approval In 2018,18.3% approve of the job that Congress is doing. In 2010, 17% approved of the job that Congress was doing. In 2002, 50% approved of the job that Congress was doing.

Congressional job approval Hillary Clinton is down from 63% in July

Generic congressional vote In 2018, Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot 48.8-40.5%.

Generic congressional vote In 2018, Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot 48.8-40.5%. In 2010, Republicans led Democrats in the generic congressional ballot 50.7-41.3%.

Generic congressional vote In 2018, Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot 48.8-40.5%. In 2010, Republicans led Democrats in the generic congressional ballot 50.7-41.3%. In 2002, Republicans led Democrats in the generic congressional ballot 47.7-46.0%.

Generic congressional vote Hillary Clinton is down from 63% in July

Seats Lost by President’s Party, 1862-2014 Economic Conditions Presidential Popularity Mid-Term Effect Incumbent Vulnerability

First Term Midterm Elections House Seats Gained/Lost Senate Seats Gained/Lost 1954 -18 -1 1962 -5 +3 1970 -12 1978 -15 -3 1982 -26 +1 1990 -7 1994 -54 -10 2002 +8 2010 -63 -6

House: is it time for a change? Solid Seats: 201 Rep, 177 Dem Likely/Lean Seats: 26Rep, 7 Dem Toss Up or Worse: 20Rep, 4 Dem

House: is it time for a change? Solid Seats: 201 Rep, 177 Dem Likely/Lean Seats: 26Rep, 7 Dem Toss Up or Worse: 20Rep, 4 Dem

Senate: is it time for a change? Democrats — 44 Republicans — 54 Independents — 2

Change or more of the same?

Party Control of Governorships Democrats 13 + NC Republicans 36

Party control of state legislatures Democrats 12 Republicans Nonpartisan 1 Split 3 Uncalled 1

Party “trifecta” by state Democrats 6 Republicans 24

nebraska Unicameral ELECTION 2016 49 senators 36 Men; 13 Women Ages range from 28 - 79 years old 34 of 39 < 2 years experience 16 Democrats; 31 Republicans; 1 Independent; 1 Libertarian 2018 24 of 49 seats are up for election 6 senators term-limited 16 seated senators face re-election LEGISLATIVE UPDATE: Good news:  Elections are officially over!  The Nebraska Legislature will be welcoming 17 new senators in January.  These 17 senators-elect, coupled with their cohorts elected in 2015, now means 34 of 49 senators will have two years or less of experience.  Term-limits have certainly increased the amount of senator turnover, but this year also resulted in an uncommon ending:  five incumbents lost their re-election bids, all Republicans.  Like the national election, polling data for some of these key races may have been misleading, as two of senators who lost finished first in their primary races in May.   Many in the Capitol have discussed what the shift in the body may mean for legislative debate compared to prior years.  With 32 Republicans, 15 Democrats, 1 Independent, and 1 Libertarian slated to enter the Unicameral in January, all eyes will be on the groups that align themselves together to move or block legislation.  Last year, senators entered into an unprecedented number of filibusters and both conservative Republicans and Democrats would reach the crucial 33-vote threshold needed to invoke cloture, essentially forcing senators to end a filibuster or allow the bill to die.  Speaker Galen Hadley(R-Dist. 37, Kearney) has suggested the shift in parties - in the officially non-partisan body - will likely increase the number of filibusters next session. Incumbents and senators-elect will convene next week for the Legislative Council retreat at Offutt Air Force Base.  Senator Bob Krist(R-Dist. 10, Omaha), chair of the Executive Board, will begin the process of educating the 17 new members through the orientation on hiring staff, introducing bills, and providing insight into the issues facing members in 2017.  As the 2017 session is a long, 90-day budget year, much of the focus of the Legislature will be on crafting and passing a biennial budget.  Unlike years past, senators will be grappling with how to close a nearly $1B projected shortfall and working with Governor Pete Ricketts(R), agencies, and others to find solutions to the deficit.  The budget package and proposed cuts to agencies or cash funds will directly impact K-12 school funding, higher-ed, Corrections, income and property tax reform, and any business incentive packages.  Legislators have been working to solve funding issues within the Department of Corrections over the last two years, so we also expect a sizeable fiscal note for that agency. EXECUTIVE UPDATE: Overall, Governor Ricketts had a successful Election night - 8 of 14 senators he was behind won their races and an overwhelming majority of Nebraskans voted to reinstate the death penalty after it was repealed by the Legislature in 2015.  The Governor said yesterday he and his Administration will move forward with death row executions, which were on hold since the repeal was put into law.  Governor Ricketts also inserted himself financially into a handful of legislative races - even backing one Republican candidate over another incumbent Republican in three instances. Governor Ricketts and his team will now focus on their plans to address the nearly $1B budget shortfall for the next biennium, as well as crafting his annual State of the State address in January.  As mentioned previously, the ‘shift’ in numbers of Republicans and Democrats looks as though Republicans lost three senators, but in actuality, three conservative Republicans took over seats held by more moderate Republicans.  This shift in ideology has led many to believe that filibusters are likely to increase, as policy gridlock is expected to be stronger this session with the shifting dynamics.

www.unomaha.edu/psci