Volume 394, Issue 10195, Pages (July 2019)

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Volume 394, Issue 10195, Pages 322-331 (July 2019) Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study Daniel J Weiss, PhD, Tim C D Lucas, PhD, Michele Nguyen, PhD, Anita K Nandi, PhD, Donal Bisanzio, PhD, Katherine E Battle, DPhil, Ewan Cameron, PhD, Katherine A Twohig, MPH, Daniel A Pfeffer, MPH, Jennifer A Rozier, MSc, Harry S Gibson, PhD, Puja C Rao, MPH, Daniel Casey, MPH, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, MPH, Emma L Collins, MSc, Ursula Dalrymple, DPhil, Naomi Gray, MBioChem, Joseph R Harris, MSc, Rosalind E Howes, DPhil, Sun Yun Kang, PhD, Suzanne H Keddie, MSc, Daniel May, BSc, Susan Rumisha, PhD, Michael P Thorn, MSc, Ryan Barber, BSc, Nancy Fullman, MPH, Chantal K Huynh, BA, Xie Kulikoff, MPH, Michael J Kutz, BS, Prof Alan D Lopez, PhD, Prof Ali H Mokdad, PhD, Prof Mohsen Naghavi, PhD, Grant Nguyen, BA, Katya Anne Shackelford, BA, Prof Theo Vos, PhD, Haidong Wang, PhD, Prof David L Smith, PhD, Prof Stephen S Lim, PhD, Prof Christopher J L Murray, DPhil, Samir Bhatt, DPhil, Prof Simon I Hay, FMedSci, Prof Peter W Gething, PhD The Lancet Volume 394, Issue 10195, Pages 322-331 (July 2019) DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9 Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Plasmodium falciparum incidence (A and B) and count (C and D) globally and for sub-Saharan Africa from 2000–17 95% uncertainty intervals shown via the corresponding coloured bands around the mean lines. Rates were calculated using the total population in each age group in all endemic countries. The Lancet 2019 394, 322-331DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9) Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Regional distribution of Plasmodium falciparum incidence (A) and count (B) To show trends across regions with such different endemicity levels, the y-axis is scaled using the square root of incidence (per 1000 individuals) for A and count (in millions of cases) for B. 95% uncertainty intervals are shown via the corresponding coloured bands behind the mean lines. Rates were calculated using the total population in all endemic countries within each region. The Lancet 2019 394, 322-331DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9) Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Spatial distribution of age-standardised P falciparum parasite rate2–10 in 2005 (top) and 2017 (bottom) Note the colour scaling is split to better differentiate within low endemic areas, with one linear scale between zero and 0·01 P falciparum parasite rate2–10 (grey shades) and a second linear scale between 0·01 and 1 (colours from blue to red). Areas without endemic P falciparum are shown in white. P falciparum parasite rate2–10=P falciparum parasite rate for children aged 2–10 years of age. The Lancet 2019 394, 322-331DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9) Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Spatial distribution of all-age Plasmodium falciparum incidence in 2005 (top) and 2017 (bottom) Note the colour scaling is split to better differentiate within low endemic areas, with one linear scale between rates of zero and 10 (grey shades) and a second linear scale between 10 and 1000 (colours from purple to yellow). Areas without endemic P falciparum are shown in white. The Lancet 2019 394, 322-331DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9) Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 Spatial distribution of all-age Plasmodium falciparum mortality (deaths per 100 000 population per annum) in 2005 (top) and 2017 (bottom) The Lancet 2019 394, 322-331DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9) Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions