Measuring progress under Target 1 of the EU 2020 Biodiversity Strategy

Target 1 – Birds Directive Target 1 - Habitats Directive Outline of the presentation Background (2013, 2014, 2015) Target 1 – Birds Directive Target 1 - Habitats Directive

Methodologies to measure progress towards target 1 Background on the process Methodologies to measure progress towards target 1 Developed during 2013 and 2014 Approved by joint Ornis & Habitats Committees on April 2014 Results used in 2015 State of Nature (EEA and Commission reports) Mid-term review of the Biodiversity Strategy

Background on the content

Background – Habitats Directive component … 100% more habitat assessments and 50% more species assessments under the Habitats Directive show (a favourable or) an improved conservation status NB: 'assessments' mean EU biogeographical assessments TWO components Species and habitat types in Favourable CS Unfavourable species & habitat types with improved CS Baseline for EU target: 17 % of Habitats and 17 % of species with a Favourable conservation status – Article 17 reporting 2001-2006

Background – Habitats Directive component Change in conservation status A – Favourable B – Unfavourable but improved C – Unfavourable and deteriorated D - No change E – Became unknown (=) no change (+) improving (-) deteriorating (x) not known

Background – Backcast of EU 2001-2006 CS Very high number of ‘unknown’ assessments in 2001-2006 (e.g. 31 % for species) Only some 3 % of genuine change between 2001-2006 (p) and 2007-2012 (p+1) Inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania in 2007-2012 reporting MS ‘audit trails’ from 2007-2012 Backcast of EU biogeographical conservation status done with simple ‘rules’: Genuine change, no backcast needed Non-genuine change, then backcast (p) with (p+1)

Species (≈28 %) Habitats (≈21 %) Progress towards Target 1 in 2015 (2007-2012) Species (≈28 %) Target = 25 % (35 %) 23.1 % Favourable 4.7 % improved Habitats (≈21 %) Target = 34 % 16.4 % Favourable 4.4 % improved

Background – Birds Directive component … 50% more species assessments under the Birds Directive show a secure or improved status NB: 'assessments' mean assessments at the EU level TWO components Species with a Secure (population) status Non-secure species with improved (population) status Baseline for EU target: 52 % species with a Secure status - Birds in the European Union: a status assessment (BirdLife, 2004)

‘Secure’ component based on adapted IUCN Red List criteria Background – Birds Directive component ‘Secure’ component based on adapted IUCN Red List criteria

Background – Birds Directive component ‘Improved’ component based on combination of short- and long-term trends (of non-secure species)

Birds (≈60 %) Progress towards Target 1 in 2015 (2008-2012) 52 % Secure 8.5 % improved

General principles Proposals for measuring (final) progress in 2020 Keep methodologies as much as possible Adapt to take into account EU enlargement Update key data (e.g. trend periods for birds) Compare ‘baselines’ with 2020 assessments

Target 1 – Birds Directive

‘Secure’ - EU assessments 2013-2018 (modified IUCN Red List criteria) Birds Directive Same methodology as for 2015 Geographical adaptation to EU28 (or ‘new’ EU27), adaptation of periods for trends ‘Secure’ - EU assessments 2013-2018 (modified IUCN Red List criteria) ‘Improved’ - non-secure species with improved EU population trends – compare short-term (2007-2018) with long-term (1980-2018)

Birds Directive ‘Secure’ - EU population assessments 2013-2018

‘Improved’ - non-secure species with improved EU population trends Birds Directive ‘Improved’ - non-secure species with improved EU population trends Contribution to Target 1: Yes / No

Target 1 – Habitats Directive (c) Carlos Romão

‘Favourable’ - EU biogeographical assessments 2013-2018 (sub-value A) Habitats Directive ‘Favourable’ - EU biogeographical assessments 2013-2018 (sub-value A) Improved unfavourable assessments Same methodology for assessments without changes or with genuine changes between 2007-2012 and 2013-2018 New: use of conservation status trends in 2013-2018 for assessments with non-genuine changes

Habitats Directive

Habitats Directive Accounting for ‘Improved’ unfavourable assessments with genuine change or no-change (Table 1) (sub-value B1)

Trend of overall conservation status in 2013-2018 Habitats Directive Accounting for ‘Improved’ unfavourable assessments with non-genuine changes (sub-value B2) Trend of overall conservation status in 2013-2018 Improving (+) accounts for Target 1 Deteriorating, Stable, Unknown do not account

Thank you for your attention Habitats & Birds Directives In addition to measuring progress towards Target 1 (and 3, a sub-set of species/habitats) Conservation/population status and its trends (qualifiers) can be used to compare progress between 2007-2012 and 2013-2018 Many other analysis are possible and will be further explored… Thank you for your attention