China Steel & Ferro-Alloys -------Overview and General Prospect of 2017 Mr. Karl Liu, GM of SINO-MINEMET Intl Co (China) Managing Directot of Ferro-Alloys.Com
ABOUT SINO-MINEMET Founded in 1999 by China National Coal Energy and became shareholdings in 2005 . Export Coal, Coke, Metals and Ferroalloys; Import Ores, alloys and scrap, Coal related Machines 2010 invested in Metallurgical CaSi Plant, 40K mt/pa with top grade quality. Licensed A Class company in exporting ferroalloys. Major exporter of FeSi, CaSi, Ca Metal, Mg Metal, Mn Metal, FeV ,and CR./MN ore and Alloys trading.
OUTLINE Part I. Chinese Steel Industry Overview Part II. Iron ore, Coal,Mn /Cr ore Part III Chinese Ferro-Alloys Overview and Outlook . Conclusion
Part I. Chinese Steel Overview Steel Capability and Production in 2016 Capacity: 808million tons crude steel Pig Iron 701Million tons Total output 1138million tons(including process products) Demands: acutal consumption 670million tons Trade: import Steel 13.21millon tons, Iron ore: 1024million tons Export Steel: 108million tons
Chinese Steel Overview on 2016 Investment: Smetering and Processing: 416.1billion, down 2.2% Mining 97.8billion, down 28.4% Income : 2800billion RMB, Profit 38.3 Billion RMB ,only 1.8% Outlook: Steel Demands in 2017 : 660million tons , will down 1.6% Output in 2017 : 788 Million tons ,will down 2.48% In General, Chinese Steel in 2017: Low profit
Coal,Iron Ore,Mn Ore, Cr Ore Overview 2016 IRON ORE: Global Output : 2.05 Billion Tons China Consumption : 1.1Billion tons COAL&COKE: Global Coal output:7.78 billion tons Coke Coal: 2.1billion tons China Coal Output:3.34 billion tons import Coal: 250million tons Manganese Ore: Global 54miilion tons China imported: 17.08miilion tons up 8.2% Domestic : 8million tons Manganese Alloys :10miilion tons El.Mn metak : 2million tons .
Coal,Iron Ore,Mn Ore, Cr Ore Overview 2016 Manganese Alloy Output in coming 3 years: 3 million new capacity Jilin Ferroalloys(inner Mogolia :1million SiMn Tianyuan Manganese: 1million SiMn Others; 1 million tons In General Mn ore demands keep growing ,unless SiMn Capacity not full operated before 2020 Chrome Ore: Global Output : 30 million tons China imported: 10.58Million tons , only 1.8% up China consumpted: 11 millions of Cr ore New capacity: 2.6million tons before 2020 Additional Cr demands 5.20Million tons
Part III. Chinese Fe-Alloys Overview&Outlook Capability and Production : 40 Millions tons 2016 output: 35.58Million tons Market Overview and trend: S.A Cr ore :300% up to usd420/dmtu Current:usd360-390 BHP Mn ore :from USD2.95 up to usd9.50/dmtu , up by 222%, BHP net Profit in 2016: 4.7 billion US Dollars Current: usd4.95-5.3/dmtu , down by 40% SiMn RMB9800 down to RMB5900/mt
Policy and other fators Part III. Chinese Fe-Alloys Overview&Outlook Policy and other fators Not encouraged to Exp: Export Tax decreased 5% FeSi 20%; SiMn/FeMn 20%; FeCr 15% Currency value: invalue or devalue ? Cost increased: land transportation Port Logistic Charge Labor cost Others
Conclusion Market is growing: 1Q is worse than last 4Q Mn Ore import Volume will be driving ,same or more Cr Ore&FeCr: import Volume in 1Q declined,FeCr price will stop falling shortly Ore&SiMn: current price will not stand by, price will bottom up 2Q FeSi: price is growing and supply balanced demands Noble Alloys: Mo and FeV is growing due to raw materials short supply Invested in Thailand, Malysia, Indonesia may be good choices.
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