NS4960 Spring Term 2017 Appendix: Handbook of Transitions to Energy and Climate Security

Research Question Do those countries that give priority to environmental/climate change have a common set of characteristics that set them apart from those that give priority to energy security/affordability? Method – Performed a Discriminant Analysis Variables – World Bank Governance indicators, EIU Democracy Index and Trilemma Rankings from World Energy Council Results: Relative importance of discriminating variables: (1) energy security, (2) World Bank’s voice and accountability and (3) EIU’s measure of political participation.

Sample Countries

Country Discriminating Variables

Main Findings I Only three countries misclassified: India, Germany, and Denmark For example, India based on its energy trilemma choices was originally grouped with countries that did not prioritize environment sustainability Analysis suggests that prioritize energy sustainability/climate security are more likely to have low levels of energy security and relatively high levels of democracy Countries that do not prioritize climate security have relatively high levels of energy security and low levels of democracy The average ranking of the EIU’s political participation was about the same for both groups

Main Findings II Final statistical test, regression analysis, asked whether there were variables within each group that might improve a particular country’s commitment to energy sustainability Drawing on the original data set the EIU’s Democracy Index was the only statistically significant variable to the total sample of countries. However this variable accounted for only around 38% of the differences in country rankings in environmental sustainability Looking at each sub group of countries separately, the analysis found the EIU’s democracy ranking could account for around 99% of the difference in energy sustainability for countries that prioritized energy sustainability

Implications I On the other hand no variables were statistically significant in accounting for the observed levels of energy sustainability in those countries that did not prioritize energy sustainability Implications First, while many observers are focusing on the amount of assistance certain countries might require to meet their internationally agreed upon voluntary carbon reduction commitments, efforts to improve democracy might be more successful

Implications II Second, for those countries that have not prioritized energy sustainability, financial assistance is unlikely to produce meaningful results Nor are efforts simply focused on nurturing democratic institutions Instead assistance in improving energy security, along with assistance in improving democratic institutions and political participation to pay much higher dividends if these efforts are sufficient to elevate the country to that group of countries that do prioritize energy sustainability.