Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Feb. 4, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 178.9 176.5 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,626 14,930 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,781 Imports 67 57 36 45 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,934 16,811 16,751 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,298 5,500 5,575 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,600 5,700 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,480 1,490 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,450 2,425 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,793 15,030 15,190 Ending Stocks 1,571 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.60 3.90 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Dec. reports 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.1 82.5 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 52.1 50.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,411 4,600 4,090 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 955 Imports 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,734 5,063 5,070 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,080 2,075 Seed & Residual 122 146 112 128 127 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,900 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,107 4,277 Ending Stocks 793 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 8.75 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Dec. reports 3 3

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

Arable land

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 3.99 3.63 Source: CME Group, 2/1/2019

Current Soybean Futures 9.44 8.77 Source: CME Group, 2/1/2019

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/