Supporting Climate Resilience and Transformational Change in the Agriculture Sector in Bhutan

BACKGROUND Bhutan, a small country with mountainous terrain is largely agrarian, dominated by subsistence agriculture on 2.93% of total land area, often located on slopes greater than 50%. Agriculture sector is important, particularly for rural farmers, as 58% of the population depend on it. Due to geographic positioning in the Eastern Himalaya, compounded by fragile mountain ecosystem, Bhutan is subjected to high rainfall variability under monsoon condition and also high annual average rainfall

Figure 3: Yearly % departure for temperature from normal OBSERVED EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Figure 1): Seasonal Rainfall Distribution The climate in Bhutan is characterized by a dominant monsoon with 72% of annual precipitation occurring from June to September (Figire 1). Over the long term, country has experienced highly variable rainfall, alternating between dry and wet, with an overall reduction in total annual rainfall (Figure 2), but also high rainfall event in summer leading to the rise of floods/landslide, and agriculture drought during pre-monsoon season due to diminishing seasonal rainfall availability overtime, leading to fallowing of land. Similar to observed changes in rainfall, Figure 3 shows the yearly percentage departure of temperature from normal, showing +ve trend, indicating overall increase in temperature affecting crop season These clearly highlights that agriculture in Bhutan is highly vulnerable to climate change. Figure 2): Changes in Rainfall Pattern Figure 3: Yearly % departure for temperature from normal

PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE SCENERIO Figure 4: Changes in rainfall simulated by downscaled scenarios The projected scenario derived using PRECIS suggest warming is expected to increase by 20Cby mid 21st century and 30C by late 21st century The projection also indicate mean annual precipitation is likely to increase by 10% for the period 2010-2039, with a corresponding increase by 20% for the period 2040-2069 The projection also clearly shows that winter in future will be drier by 5%, while monsoon will be wetter by 11% in the long term. Figure 5: Changes in temperature simulated by downscaled scenarios

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE SECTOR Over the years Bhutan has experienced the manifestation of climate change impacts in the form of increased incidences of landslides and flashfloods, washing away roads and irrigation infrastructure, while also experiencing agriculture drought during pre monsoon season affecting agriculture production Under the projected scenario, it is expected to get worst

PRIORITY INTEVENTIONS OF THE PROJECT In line with the priority of the Royal Government of Bhutan, and as supported by the evidence of climate change impact on agriculture, the project aims to build resilience and bring about transformational changes by supporting the followings: Promote resilient agriculture practices Integrate clime change risk into water and land management practices that affect small horders Reduce the risk and impact of climate change induced landslides during extreme events that disrupts market access The project will specifically: Bring direct benefits to 14400 people from enhanced irrigation system; 103,346 people from SLM interventions, 64,591 people from support to resilient agricultural practices. Overall 46.5 % of rural population of Bhutan will benefit from this project with above 50% being women. It will also indirectly benefits remaining rural population through demonstration effect as well as through enhanced agriculture planning

PROJECT LANDSCAPE These districts are selected because of the moderate – high level of poverty incidences and high vulnerability to climate change impacts The total project fund is USD 58.02 million. Of the total, GCF grant financing request is USD 25.347 million GCF grant (44%), while USD 32.673 million (56%) will be met as co-finance from RGoB.

PROJECT IMPLEMENTAION & PARTNERSHIP The project will be implemented through Gross National Happiness Commission in partnership with: Ministry of Agriculture and Forest Ministry of Works and Human Settlement National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology