Assessing Africa’s Off-Grid Electricity Market F Assessing Africa’s Off-Grid Electricity Market F. Andrew Dowdy Engineers Without Borders – USA* *This presentation represents views of the author, not necessarily those of EWB-USA

Africa’s Electricity Challenge Africa at heart of global challenge 2017: 840m globally without electricity, 573m in Sub-Saharan Africa 2030: 650m globally without electricity, 600m in Sub-Saharan Africa 80% of those in rural areas, far from grid Image courtesy Fenix International Off-grid power systems key By 2030: Solar home systems serve 86m Mini-grids serve 45m By 2040: Possibly > 500m by both Unprecedented development GraceN.Cartography, commons.wikimedia.org

Household Electricity Demand Miniscule Consumption U.S. Household-900 kWh/mo African HHs: 20-30 kWh/mo. Capacity to pay: $5-10/mo. Prioritized Uses Lights Cellphone charging TV Fan Refrigerator Pressing Iron Falling loads LED for lights and TV’s Brushless DC motors for fans Load 1/10th that of 1990’s

Supply: Cost Structure Off-grid power is expensive Cost varies with scale SHS cheapest at small scales Mini-grids at larger Grid at largest

2030 Cost Structure? Off-grid power is expensive Cost varies with scale SHS cheapest at small scales Mini-grids at larger Grid at largest Technology improvements Forecast to lower solar costs But distribution costs unchanged SHS’s become cheaper than mini-grids across consumption range

Market Outlook Solar home systems Grid extension Mini-Grids Dominate household market First mover advantage “Paygo” financing Lack of regulatory barriers Technology → lower costs Grid extension Success varies by country Hampered by poor regulatory environment & bankrupt utilities Mini-Grids Viable for larger towns and loads But high cost similar to SHS Plus regulated like grid Tenuous market niche

Observations/Conclusions Electricity Access Outcomes vary by country Most SSA countries will miss SDG 7 goals But most households will achieve lighting, TV Poverty the principal obstacle Household resources < capital required SSA much poorer than US during rural electrification SHS’s in Refugee Camp in Nepal Image: EWB – Larry Bentley For Policymakers Electricity access is important for human and economic development But may not be the best use of limited donor resources Electricity access not demonstrably tied to broader economic development Investment probably exceeds $2000/household Households exhibit other preferences for investment funds

The Thinker, Musee Rodin, by innoxiuss, Wikimedia Commons Questions?