National Agricultural Statistics Service United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service 2017 Extension Summer Outlook Conference Indianapolis, IN Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch August 15, 2017

Agenda Where Do Crop Forecasts Come From? August Forecast Highlights Other Topics to Think About

Where Do Yield Forecasts Come From? Ag Yield Survey Farmers Report Expected Yields Objective Yield Survey Enumerators Make Counts & Measurements, Eventually Harvest Sample Plots Remote Sensing Yield Indications Derived Using Satellite Imagery

How Are Sources Weighted? Ag Yield Survey Objective Yield Survey Yield Forecast Remote Sensing

How Are Sources Weighted? Ag Yield Survey Tends to have more weight early in the season. Objective Yield Survey As crop matures more useful data are obtained. Remote Sensing Supports survey based indications.

How Are Sources Weighted? Indication Indication +/- xx SE Source

How Are Sources Weighted?

How Are Sources Weighted? DATA ARE NOT REAL – FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY

Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Winter Wheat Survey Overview Ag Yield Objective Yield Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Winter Wheat Sample Size 21,654 Corn: 960* Soybeans: 917* Cotton: 1,197 Winter Wheat: 1,470 Total: 4,544 Collection Period July 29 – Aug 4 July 25 – Aug 1 * Only Even-Numbered Samples Observed in August. Counts will double in September. USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Other Information Sources Crop Progress Crop Condition Weather Data Administrative Data

Condition vs Yield Data Condition Ratings Yield Surveys How Many Reports? ~3,000 21,654 Farmers 4,544 Field Plots Who Reports? Extension Agents FSA Employees Farmers Actual Field Analysis What is Reported? Overall Crop Condition (V Poor, Poor, Fair, Good, Excellent) Expected Yield Plant & Fruit Counts/Fruit Weight

August 2017 Crop Production USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Largest Change = 12.4 Bushels (2010) Average Change = 4.1 Bushels Smallest Change = 0.3 Bushel (2012) USDA-NASS 8-10-17

August 2017 Crop Production USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Average Change = 2.05 Bushels Smallest Change = 0.2 Bushel (2007) Largest Change = 5.5 Bushels (2003)

August 2017 Crop Production USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

NASS Estimate High Of Expectations USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

USDA-NASS 8-10-17

Executive Summary Emailed to distribution list at release time Posted to NASS website

Other Topics Census of Agriculture Harvested Acres Biotech Acres Principal Crops

USDA Data Users’ Meeting

National Agricultural Statistics Service All Reports Available At United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service All Reports Available At www.nass.usda.gov For Questions 202-720-2127 Lance.Honig@nass.usda.gov