Looking to the power system future An ENTSO-E perspective ETIP SNET 21 March 2018, Brussels Norela Constantinescu, Team Lead R&I ENTSO- E

Summary TYNDP –looking to 2040 Flexibility needs Innovation in the next future: Digitization and markets Conclusion

Scenarios to 2040

From 2020 to 2040 and by 2040: elements Scenarios From 2020 to 2040 and by 2040: elements Installed production capacity Electricity demand CBG – Coal before Gas GBC – Gas before Coal ST – Sustainable Transition DG - Distributed Generation GCA - Global Climate Action

TYNDP 2018 : looking to 2040 Centralised and decentralised coexist RES –up to 70% of demand, developed in non coordinated manner with the network Need for physical layer Grid costs: 150 billion Euros in total (TYNDP2016): new investments needed after 2030 “No grid” in 2040 : extra bill by 2040: 43 billion Euros/year threaten reliable access to electricity 156 TWh/year of RES wasted (annual consumption of BENELUX ) New needs in a new set-up More frequency variation Impact of inertia reduction especially on small systems stability aspects Observability and controllability of distributed resources and coordination between TSOs/DSOs

Flexibility needs Duration curves : Wind and Solar / Total generation Magnitude of the hourly ramping Lower inertia trend especially in the small synchronous area Use of Interconnectors ( VSC and AC) Batteries Super capacitators

New digital technologies: new opportunities Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Work in progress under the RESEARCH AND INNOVATION COMMITTEE, together with POYRI Expected outcomes: Digitalization common framework R&D needs and roadmap Opportunities Impacts Source: Gartner, 2017

TSOs face a multitude of challenges THE ROLE OF TSO & THE CHALLENGES and opportunities Faced with Digitalization The three high-level roles for TSOs enable the categorisation of the various challenges and opportunities Volatile flows and usage of networks Complex devices: FACTS, HVDC, cables, batteries Dynamic interactions with other TSOs, DSOs, demand Maximise assets rather than new build Cost reduction in construction and maintenance New materials and maintenance techniques Provision of more information and CBAs Programming, automation of critical situations Technology testing and implementation Information and Communication Technologies Dynamic Line Rating GIS, Google Maps, drones, sensors Predictive methods, ANN, AI, more training Automated analyses, visualisation tools System Planning ►1 ►2 Complex short term demand forecasts Asynchronous generation limits, more RT analysis, redispatching Interaction TSOs (XB balancing), DSOs, DSM, aggregators Pressure on costs, provision of more information and CBAs Security, cybersecurity New tools: demand sensitivity to prices, forecast and collection of more weather and market data Sophisticated /probabilstic modelling tools, big data Dynamic simulations in RT, faster state estimation Adapt EMS, increased visibility of neighbour systems Faster and complex constraints analyses, visualisation tools Data security, encrypation, blockchains System operation ►3 TSOs face a multitude of challenges ►4 ►5 Shorter gate closures, continuous trading Increased intraday trading and information New balancing products and providers Enabling new players and technologies, consumer first Capacity calculation and congestion management Faster systems, Blockchains Integration in AGC Design and integration of Consumer information, Apps Coordination schemes for congestion and balancing (processes, products, gate closure) Market facilitation ►... PÖYRY - #poyrydigital 8 FEBRUARY 2018

Conclusions Architecture of the European power system is evolving : centralized and decentralized coexist Network operators are key in facilitating transactions over the value chain The “fourth industrial revolution” increases the interfaces: sectors need to couple across electricity, gas heating , transport and digital: system of systems New hardware and software technologies are needed to enable interactions , particularly digitization and market design

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