Laurent Li Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) CNRS, Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC) 4, Place Jussieu,

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Presentation transcript:

Laurent Li Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) CNRS, Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC) 4, Place Jussieu, Paris cedex 05 Supporting materials for the presentation CIRCLE workshop, July 4th 2005, Paris

GICC-MedWater Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the water cycle of the Mediterranean basin ( l) A project supported by the French National programme GICC (Gestion et Impact du Changement Climatique) A joint project of IPSL (Paris) and Meteo-France (Toulouse), with collaboration of MEDIAS (Toulouse)

Mediterranean Sea (2.5x10 6 km 2 ) (Courtesy of DLR)

Water budget of the Mediterranean Sea (annual estimation, mm/yr) E: evaporation:1100 P, precipitation:400 E-P:700 R, river discharge:100 (8100 m3/s) B, Black Sea:75 G, Gibraltar:525

Mediterranean Sea hydrological cycle LMDZ and observation-based estimation (Mariotti et al. 2002) LMDZ Obs.

Regional projections of climate scenarios (models used) LMDZ-Mediterranean (IPSL, Paris) Arpege-Mediterranean (Météo-France, Toulouse)

MED8: 1/8° (12km), 43 vertical levels bathymetry

Regional scenarios performed in MedWater

LMDZ/CNRM LMDZ/GFDL T P Changes of surface air temperature and precipitation in LMDZ LMDZ/IPSL

Relative changes of precipitation in Arpege for 2100

Evolution of Mediterranean water budget deficit (E-P-R) in Arpege scenario control

Changes ( ) of water and heat budgets for the 4 scenarios (IPCC-A2) and for the whole Med. Sea Both water deficit and heat budget increase

T and S in control simulations LMDZ, Arpege and their variations ( ) for the 4 scenarios Increase of both temperature and salinity in the Med. Sea

Mixed layer depth in the Gulf of Lion: drastic decrease of the Mediterranean convection CTRL ( )CTRL ( )SCEN ( )

Mediterranean zonal overturning stream function Decrease of MAW, LIW and EMDW. WMDW also decreases, but it is not visible here

Water fluxes in the Gibraltar Strait and their properties in control run and the 4 scenarios for 2100 Decrease of both inflow and outflow in the Gibraltar Strait. Warmer and saltier outflow water exported from the Med. Sea

Future development (MedWater-II): Regional coupled climate system modelling

Cooperations, in particular: 1) Extension to other models (atmosphere and ocean) 2) Extension to other communities (impact-oriented and academic research-oriented)