ALARO-0 at ZAMG Experiences, verification, identified problems, …. Christoph Wittmann

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG Content Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG Experiences / verification / identified problems Precipitation Low Stratus Temperature Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG

History Short history: 09/2007 ALARO-0 (minus 3MT) operational (9.6km) 04/2009 full ALARO-0 operational (9.6km) 05/2009 start of daily ALARO-0 4.8km run (00 UTC) 2010 verification, tests, etc. 06/2010 implementation of CANARI surface assimilation 09/2010 ALARO-0 4.8km coupled to IFS 10/2010 name for model version: “ALARO5-AUSTRIA” 01/2011 ALARO5-AUSTRIA running 4 times / day 03/2011 ALARO5-AUSTRIA announced as operational model at ZAMG 09/2012 (?) NEC-SX8R switched off at ZAMG = end of 9.6km ALARO-0 version

Implementation of ALARO at ZAMG Operational model at ZAMG: “ALARO5-AUSTRIA” resolution: 4.8km / 60L runs: 00 / 06 / 12 / 18h forecast range: 72h oro./grid: mean / linear time step: 180s initialization: IFS (3D) CANARI (2D) physics: ALARO-0, SK scheme dynamics: hydrostatic availability: 4 hours after init time

ALADIN-LAEF operational + upgrade settings Ensemble size 16+1 Horizontal resolution 18 km / 11 km Vertical resolution 37 layer / 45 layer Runs/Day 2 (00, 12 UTC) Forecast range 60 h / 72h Output-Frequency 1h Model time step 720s / 400s Coupling-Model (time-lagged) ECMWF-EPS (SV Vectors, first 16 members) Coupling-Update 6h

Multiphysics New version brings nice improvements (esp. skill scores for precip.) ALARO physics ALADIN-Fr physics Targets on: Microphysics Convection (shallow + deep), Turbulence Cellular automaton approach included (2 members) Radiation (radiative cloud condensate) Screening level diagnostics (T2m, RH2m, 10m gusts) … never ending story (ideas+input needed …) TOUCANS and other new developments are always welcome 

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG Content Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG Experiences / verification / identified problems Precipitation Low Stratus Temperature Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG,…

Precipitation Experiences/Feedback triggering of convection over orography too early (nothing new) overestimation of (severe) convective precipitation over orography underestimation of (stratiform) precipitation over flatland areas (e.g. northeastern part of Austria) E-SUITE launched end of April (using retuned microphysics, work by Radmila), should become operational within next weeks: Nice improvements for 2 of the 3 mentioned points …

Winter case I winter case: frontal zone approaching alps ALARO 6.5km IFS COSMO-EU

Winter case II winter case: frontal zone approaching alps

Summer case II

Triggering of convection

Triggering of convection (COSMO vs. ALARO)

Severe convection I reports from regional centers in the south of Austria: overestimation of severe convection

Severe convection II

Severe convection III

Verification

Low stratus Experiences/Feedback: ALARO-1 Working days 21/03/2017 Experiences/Feedback: ALARO5-AUSTRIA with better performance than IFS, COSMO(-EU) …. but just when using empirical subinversion scheme (SK) In flatland areas performance is quite good stratus in “resolved” valleys and basins still not sufficiently predicted

Beispiel Hochnebel I ALARO5 IFS ALARO10 MSG VIS Synoptikertreffen 21/03/2017 ALARO5 IFS ALARO10 MSG VIS

Synoptikertreffen 21/03/2017

Verification low stratus Vienna

Temperatures Experiences/feedback: ALARO-1 Working days 21/03/2017 Experiences/feedback: Current PBL / SBL / surface representation with problems create a mixed layer in winter time (cold daytime bias) general cold daytime bias during summer best performance during spring / autumn better performance during night

Temperature ALARO-1 Working days 21/03/2017

2m temperature verification Vienna during night during day time series 00+27h AE/BIAS ALARO time series 00+36h AE/BIAS ALARO

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG Content Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG Experiences / verification / identified problems Precipitation Low Stratus Temperature Gusts Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG, … 25

Plans with ALARO at ZAMG Current priority: AROME-AUSTRIA (2.5 km) … plan: operational in 2013 Migration NEC -> SGI Beside that: Ready for tests with new ALARO-1 developments Stratus (SK scheme vs. TOUCANS?) Wind gusts AROME 2.5km vs. ALARO 5 km Continue work on multiphysics for LAEF Continue work on stochastic physics for LAEF Soon: AROME 1km , ALARO 1km ?

Input for discussions Most important topics to be handled (as seen from ZAMG): Triggering of convection Intensity of convective precipitation Missing (weak) stratiform events Stratus in valleys, basins Cold daytime bias Wind+Gusts (10m+100m) … some of that already solved with ALARO-1?

After almost 1 year of delay … … a new HPC is waiting at ZAMG for more SGI ICE X ALARO-1 Working days 21/03/2017 After almost 1 year of delay … … a new HPC is waiting at ZAMG for more complex physics, higher resolution, … … ready for work in few month (after migration work ) 28