Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan. 23-27, 2006 BET: A Probabilistic Tool for Long- and Short-term Volcanic.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2006, Vienna, Austria, 02 – 07 April 2006 BET: A Probabilistic.

Advertisements

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia The International Merapi Workshop 2006, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, Sectember 2006 BET: A Probabilistic Tool.

EGU General AssemblyEGU INGV-DPC Project UNRESTVienna, 05/05/2010.

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Database of Potential Sources for Earthquakes larger than M 5.5 in Italy, and surrounding areas, version.

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

Introduction to modelling extremes

EXPLORIS Montserrat Volcano Observatory Aspinall and Associates Risk Management Solutions An Evidence Science approach to volcano hazard forecasting.

1 Uncertainty in rainfall-runoff simulations An introduction and review of different techniques M. Shafii, Dept. Of Hydrology, Feb

Application of SASHA for Mt. Etna case Task D: Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Salvatore D'Amico Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Osservatorio.

EURANDOM & KNMI, May 2009 Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation

Operational Earthquake Loss Forecasting in Italy: Preliminary Results I. Iervolino, 1 E. Chioccarelli, 1 M. Giorgio, 2 W. Marzocchi, 3 A. Lombardi, 3 G.

Creating probability forecasts of binary events from ensemble predictions and prior information - A comparison of methods Cristina Primo Institute Pierre.

Introduction to Probability and Probabilistic Forecasting L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y Simon Mason International Research Institute for.

Statistical Postprocessing of Weather Parameters for a High-Resolution Limited-Area Model Ulrich Damrath Volker Renner Susanne Theis Andreas Hense.

Engineering Economic Analysis Canadian Edition

Warner Marzocchi, Laura Sandri INGV, Via D. Creti 12, Bologna, Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Considerazioni.

Validation and Monitoring Measures of Accuracy Combining Forecasts Managing the Forecasting Process Monitoring & Control.

CS 589 Information Risk Management 30 January 2007.

PROVIDING DISTRIBUTED FORECASTS OF PRECIPITATION USING A STATISTICAL NOWCAST SCHEME Neil I. Fox and Chris K. Wikle University of Missouri- Columbia.

Comparing volcanic risk at Volcán de Fuego and Cerro Quemado, Guatemala. PhD research proposal by Rüdiger Escobar Wolf.

CS 589 Information Risk Management 6 February 2007.

Unit 6 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Risk Assessment: the Generic Concept COMM80: Risk Assessment of Systems Change.

A MULTI RISK ASSESSMENT OF DISASTERS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGES Paolo Gasparini 1 Warner Marzocchi 2 Amra Scarl, Napoli 1Dipt. Di Scienze Fisiche, Università.

A Concept of Environmental Forecasting and Variational Organization of Modeling Technology Vladimir Penenko Institute of Computational Mathematics and.

MARKET IN TRAFFIC LIGHTS Designed for the next Users Private Investors Professional investors in Broker companies Run mode: Real Time combined with the.

Extreme Value Analysis, August 15-19, Bayesian analysis of extremes in hydrology A powerful tool for knowledge integration and uncertainties assessment.

Annex I: Methods & Tools prepared by some members of the ICH Q9 EWG for example only; not an official policy/guidance July 2006, slide 1 ICH Q9 QUALITY.

Chapter 14 Risk and Uncertainty Managerial Economics: Economic Tools for Today’s Decision Makers, 4/e By Paul Keat and Philip Young.

Basics of Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis Supplement to Fire Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Engineering Professionals Icove and Ruggles (2011) Funded.

AGU fall meeting, December 5-9, 2011, San Francisco INGV Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool for forecasting large earthquakes E. Lippiello 1,

Volcanic Risk Management: the experience of the Italian Civil Protection system M. Rosi, V. Bosi, C. Cardaci, C. Cristiani, S. Ciolli, L. Coppola, D. Mangione,

September 20101Master of Science in Geological & Mining & Sciences Michigan Technological University – College of Engineering Historic Activity Records.

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET: a probabilistic tool for Eruption Forecasting and Volcanic.

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV PART II: BET_EF installation PART II: BET_EF installation.

VTT-STUK assessment method for safety evaluation of safety-critical computer based systems - application in BE-SECBS project.

GMES - MyOcean: operational oceanography, a source of new economic and environmental services Nadia Pinardi University of Bologna and Istituto Nazionale.

To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna Forecasting.

Engineering Economic Analysis Canadian Edition

A. Betâmio de Almeida Assessing Modelling Uncertainty A. Betâmio de Almeida Instituto Superior Técnico November 2004 Zaragoza, Spain 4th IMPACT Workshop.

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV PART III: How BET_EF works PART III: How BET_EF works.

Application of SASHA for the Icelandic case Vera D’Amico 1, Dario Albarello 2, Ragnar Sigbjörnsson 3, Rajesh Rupakhety 3 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica.

Quantifying long- and short-term volcanic hazard. Erice, 6-8 Nov INGV BET: a probabilistic tool for Eruption Forecasting and Volcanic Hazard Assessment.

Decision making Under Risk & Uncertainty. PAWAN MADUSHANKA MADUSHAN WIJEMANNA.

1 Probabilistic Scenario Analysis (PSA) 2 PSA -History In 1940’s - work on the atomic bomb In the 1950's - used as "what if" scenarios for nuclear proliferation.

Supporting Researchers and Institutions in Exploiting Administrative Databases for Statistical Purposes: Istat’s Strategy G. D’Angiolini, P. De Salvo,

LANGUAGE MODELS FOR RELEVANCE FEEDBACK Lee Won Hee.

QM Spring 2002 Business Statistics Probability Distributions.

Calculating Risk of Cost Using Monte Carlo Simulation with Fuzzy Parameters in Civil Engineering Michał Bętkowski Andrzej Pownuk Silesian University of.

INGV Real time volcanic hazard evaluation during a volcanic crisis: BET_EF and the MESIMEX experiment W. Marzocchi 1, L. Sandri 1, J. Selva 1, G. Woo 2.

Crustal velocity and anisotropy temporal variations at Etna volcano (1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Napoli, Italy (2) Seismology.

Long-term forecasting of volcanic explosivity

The INGV (Catania Section) Network System: Use of broadband networks for real time volcanic monitoring techniques Danilo Reitano Terena Networking Conference.

Because of its elevation (4,392 m), relief, hydrothermal alteration, ice cap, glacier-fed radial valleys, and proximity to suburbs of the Seattle-Tacoma.

A summary lecture on two long-lived eruptions, and how we as scientists might respond to such events.

Downscaling of European land use projections for the ALARM toolkit Joint work between UCL : Nicolas Dendoncker, Mark Rounsevell, Patrick Bogaert BioSS:

COV outline Case study 1: Model with expert judgment (limited data): Perceived probability of explosive magmatic eruption of La Soufriere, Guadeloupe,

Mountain Risks: A Marie Curie Research & Training Network THE MOUNTAIN-RISKS RESEARCH PROJECT: CHALLENGES IN QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT P.

Decision Tree Analysis. Definition A Decision Tree is a graphical presentation of a decision-making process within a business which aims to highlight.

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting experts’ probabilities Anthony O’Hagan et al 2006 Review by Samu Mäntyniemi.

Dealing with Uncertainty: A Survey of Theories and Practice Yiping Li, Jianwen Chen and Ling Feng IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering,

Matteo Albano1, Marco Polcari1, Christian Bignami1, Marco Moro1, Michele Saroli2,1, Salvatore Stramondo1 1 - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica a Vulcanologia,

IAVCEI General Assembly, August 17th - 22nd - Reykjavik, Iceland

Monte Carlo Schedule Analysis

CPM, PERT & Schedule Risk Analysis in Construction

Risk-informed Decision Making under Incomplete Information

An introduction to Bayesian reasoning Learning from experience:

Picture, diagrams, maps, images, videos, interactive sldie

N-Gram Model Formulas Word sequences Chain rule of probability

Intelligent Contextual Data Stream Monitoring

Presentation transcript:

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 BET: A Probabilistic Tool for Long- and Short-term Volcanic Hazard Assessment Warner MARZOCCHI, Jacopo SELVA, Laura SANDRI Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Bologna, Italy Funded by INGV-DPC V4 Project: Conception, verification, and application of innovative techniques to study active volcanoes

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 What is BET? BET (Bayesian Event Tree) BET (Bayesian Event Tree) is a new statistical code to estimate and visualize short-term (eruption forecasting BET_EF) and long-term volcanic hazard (BET_VH) and relative uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory) BET Input BET Input: Volcanological data, models, and/or expert opinion. These data are provided by the end-user. BET transforms these information into probabilities BET Output BET Output: Time and space evolution of the probability function of each specific event in which we are interested in.

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 The method is based on three basic steps How BET works (1) 1. Design of a generic Bayesian Event Tree 2. Estimate the conditional probability at each node 3. Combine the probabilities of each node to obtain probability distribution of any relevant event Bibliography â Newhall and Hoblitt, Bull. Volc (for step 1) ã Marzocchi et al., JGR 2004 (for steps 2 and 3) ã Marzocchi et al., 2006; in press IAVCEI volume on statistics in Volcanology (for steps 2 and 3) ã Marzocchi et al., 2006 in preparation (full description of BET)

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 How BET works (2)

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 The conditional probability k at the node k is factorized as: - state of unrest at time t 0 (fuzzy logic) How BET works (3) k |H] = k (1) [H (1) | k (1) H 1- ) k (2) [H (2) | k (2) H (2) Past frequency data and models; no monitoring involved (1) Only monitoring data and models are considered Bayes model

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 How BET works (4)

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 APPLICATION TO VOLCANOES BET is a generic tool: all volcanoes can be uploaded in BET Major requirements to load a volcano in BET are: 1.Models and/or theoretical believes, and/or expert elicitation (VEIs distribution, tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, lahars, etc. spatial distribution) 2.Catalog of past volcanic events and related phenomena - Target volcano - Analog volcanoes - Worldwide catalog 3.Monitoring parameters and threshold intervals Until now, we have (preliminary) implemented BET_EF for Mt. Vesuvius, and we are doing the same for Campi Flegrei (INGV- DPC V3_2 and V3_4 projects).

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 THE EXAMPLE OF BET_EF

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 EVENT TREE for BET_EF UNREST NO UNREST NODE 1 MAGMATIC INTRUSION NON MAGMATIC UNREST NODE 2 ERUPTION NO ERUPTION NODE 3 VENT LOCATION 1 VENT LOCATION 2 NODE 4 … VENT LOCATION N VEI 3 VEI 3+ NODE 5 VEI 4 VEI 4+ VEI 5+ Node 4 accounts for all possible locations of the vent (more important for calderas)

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 BET_EF PACKAGE Event selection (Unrest+Magmatic Intrusion+Eruption+Vent all loc +VEI=5+) Volcano selection (Vesuvio) Hazard procedure (No monitoring) OUTPUT

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 BET_EF PACKAGE: PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION PROBABILITY ESTIMATION Probability that all branches of the Event Tree happen contemporaneously e.g. probability that in the next month un Unrest with Magmatic Intrusion that leads to an Eruption in the Vent Location 1 with VEI = 5+ happens CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY Probability that the selected node of the Event Tree happens given that preceding branches happened e.g. probability that in the next month an event with a VEI 3, 4, or 5+ happens, given that un Unrest with Magmatic Intrusion that leads to an Eruption in the Vent Location 1 happened Selection done: (1) unrest -> (2) magmatic intrusion -> (3) eruption -> (4) location all -> (5) VEI=5+

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 THE CASE OF MONITORING OBSERVATIONS INTO BET_EF

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 For each node the end-user needs to choose: The relevant monitoring parameters A lower and upper threshold for each parameter BET takes the values of the monitored parameters and: Calculate the sum Z of anomaly degrees Calculate the average of the a priori probability k (1) 1-exp(-Z) k |H] = k (1) [H (1) | k (1) H 1- ) k (2) [H (2) | k (2) H From monitoring observations to probabilities

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 MONITORING THRESHOLDS: FUZZY LOGIC 1.Problem of thresholds definition 2.Computation of short-term probabilities (given unrest, linked to how thresholds are overcome) tltl thth Monitoring value 1 0 t l lower threshold t l higher threshold Probability of measured monitoring value being anomalous FUZZY LOGIC Subjectivity of the thresholds choice is overcome through a convergence of expert opinion and past data analysis to define a realistic interval of values for each threshold Smooth variation of probabilities for small changes in monitoring parameters (smooth thresholds)

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 BET_EF PACKAGE: MONITORING DATA MONITORING THRESHOLDS Each parameter has its own threshold interval. These intervals are defined depending on the past distribution of measured data (e.g. 60th and 90th percentiles). The threshold intervals shown here are only indicative. INPUT MONITORING MEASURES All measured monitoring values can be updated in BET. Depending on their values, the state of the volcano is defined and short-term probabilities are computed.

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 MONITORING & FUZZY #1 n e = 0 [27-120] -> p U = n e = 30 -> p U = n e = 30 & M d = 3.6 [3.5,4.1] -> p U = 0.19 Changes on the value measured for 1 parameter induce changes in probability of unrest depending on the THRESHOLDS INTERVAL When changes occur on 2 or more parameters at the same time, the probability of unrest increases.

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 MONITORING & FUZZY #2 n e = 100 -> p U = 0.78 n e = 150 -> p U = 1.00 n e = 75 -> p U = 0.51 When the measured value approach the higher threshold, the probability reach 1

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 BET is a tool to calculate and to visualize probabilities related to eruption forecasting/hazard assessment BET allows assigning dinamically the probability for each kind of possible event long-term: useful for land use planning of the territory, and for comparing the hazard with other different kind of hazards short-term: useful during emergency to help managing of short-term actions aimed to reduce risk (e.g., evacuation) BET considers all of the available information (models, state of the volcano, geologic/volcanologic/historic data, monitoring observations, expert elicitation) BET takes properly into account the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. This allows to highlight what we know and what we do not know about the system, indicating future possible works to improve the scheme BET introduces fuzzy logic to smooth the transition in probability from one state to another of the volcanic activity FINAL REMARKS on BET

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia COV4 meeting - Quito, Ecuador, Jan , 2006 BET_EF will be distributed for free this year after a pilot test carried out by volcanologists with experience in managing volcanic crises.