To recover or not to recover – the ”Laurentius-equation” Søren Laurentius Nielsen Roskilde University.

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Presentation transcript:

To recover or not to recover – the ”Laurentius-equation” Søren Laurentius Nielsen Roskilde University

Original dataset based on: • 162 transects /stations • 23 areas • Data from years 1980 – 1991 • Data from the then Danish counties

Spearman- Rank Correlation Coefficients – all significant

Established these relationships: • Nutrients (N, P) → Phytoplankton biomass • Phytoplankton biomass + suspended matter → Secchi depth • Secchi depth → Eelgrass depth limit • TN → Eelgrass depth limit

N and P vs. Phytoplankton biomass

• The equations reflect a comparison between locations • Not a development over time • Later uses imply a place for time substitution • Variation caused by differences among locations in other factors

Sediment characteristics suspected Krause-Jensen et al., Vand & Jord, 2007 Krause-Jensen et al., MEPS, 2011

(it might get quite complicated…) Krause-Jensen et al., MEPS, 2011

Causal links: N - loading N - concentrati on Phyto- plankton LightDepth limit Algal mats Organic matter Changes in sediment Anoxia Resus- pension

Markager S., Carstensen J, Krause-Jensen D, Windolf J, Timmermann K Technical report from NERI no Based on empirical analyses of data from Skive Fjord, Horsens Fjord and Odense Fjord

Kemp et al Hysteresis and regime shifts Duarte et al., Estuaries and Coasts, 2009

Conceptual model Markager S., Carstensen J, Krause-Jensen D, Windolf J, Timmermann K Technical report from NERI no

Reasons for the hysteresis Causal links: N - loading N - concentrati on Phyto- plankton LightDepth limit Algal mats Organic matter Changes in sediment Anoxia Resus- pension

3d dynamic model Sediment physics Sediment lability Benthic fauna Vegetation Wave & current energy Input Output Hydrodynamic simulation TD, sediment transport simulation Ecological simulation Erosion/deposition Bio-sedimentation