Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Helge Drange Observed and projected climate change – from global to local scale

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen CO 2 (parts per million) CO 2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii)

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2008

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2009

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2010

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2011

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2012

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 1912

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Church et al (2011) Change in heat (10 22 J) Change in heat content of ocean & land+atm+ice

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Church et al (2011) Change in heat content of ocean & land+atm+ice Change in heat (10 22 J)

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Earth´s climate is changing Main reason is our use of coal, oil and gas

Helge Drange Geophysical institute University of Bergen Possible future uncertainty ≠ no certainty

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to )

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Future emissions as today (“Business-as-usual”) +2 °C Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to ) In 2100: Global: °C Land: °C

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Global emission top in 2040, 650 ppm CO 2 -eq in °C Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to ) For a global, mean warming of ~2 °C, which we can expect sometime during second half of the 21 st century, Earth's climate is comparable to the climate ~3.2 mill years ago In 2100: Global: °C Land: °C

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Drought index based on 14 climate models ( ; RCP4.5) Dai, Nature Clim. Change (2012) Severe to extreme drought Incr soil moisture

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Over to local scale (where we all live) Much harder to do local than continental/global climate projections! Harder to make projections of precipitation than temperature Very hard to make projections about local changes in extremes

Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Western Norway, 14 September 2005

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 14 Sep 2005 For Bergen: +30 to +70 % increase in extreme precipitation by the end of the century

Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Obs change in annual mean precipitation, Norway ( , eKlima.no) Precipitation (mm) +20 % last 100 yr +31 % last 50 yr (mean 1787 mm)

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Photo: Jan M. Lillebø, Bergens Tidende Sea level

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Warming of the ocean May contribute cm in this century Glaciers melting May contribute cm in this century Greenland and Antarctica May contribute cm in this century (large uncertainties) Total: +40 to +80 cm in 2100 Cont’d increase “forever”

Department of Geophysics University of Bergen Drange m.fl. (2012) Estimated sea level rise (cm) along the coast of Norway, next 100 years (corresponding to a global sea level rise of cm) About 1/3 of this rise by 2050

Department of Geophysics University of Bergen Sea level Will last for > 1000 yr

Department of Geophysics University of Bergen 2-degree target

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (i) CO 2 -emissions from coal, oil and gas, Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (ii) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2013 Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2013: − 7 % / yr

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (iii) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2017 Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2017: −11 % / yr 2013: − 7 % / yr

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (iv) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2021 Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2021: −22 % / yr 2017: −11 % / yr 2013: − 7 % / yr

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen ? 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (v) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2025 Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated 2025: −90 % / yr 2021: −22 % / yr 2017: −11 % / yr 2013: − 7 % / yr

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen About 20 percent About 20 percent of today's CO 2 -emissions will remain in the atmosphere for 1000 years or more

Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Earthrise, 24 Dec 1968 (credit: NASA) Slides and animations available from