Norges Bank 1 Economic perspectives Charts Address by Governor Svein Gjedrem at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank on Thursday, 15 February 2007

Norges Bank 2 Chart 1 Mainland GDP Annual growth. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 3 Chart 2 Terms of trade Index. 2000=100 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 4 Chart 3 Foreign workers on assignments in Norway Source: Central Office - Foreign Tax Affairs

Norges Bank 5 Chart 4 Productivity growth in the business sector Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 6 Chart 5 Short-term real interest rate Per cent Interval for neutral real interest rate Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank 7 Chart 6 Capacity utilisation in manufacturing Per cent Source: Statistics Norway Average 2006

Norges Bank 8 Chart 7 Inflation and capacity utilisation Per cent Inflation Capacity utilisation Projections Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 9 Chart 8 Registered unemployment Per cent Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV)

Norges Bank 10 Chart 9 Norges Bank's key rate 1) Per cent Source: Norges Bank 1) Projections from Inflation Report 3/06

Norges Bank 11 Chart 10 Inflation Moving 10-year average. Per cent Inflation target Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 12 Chart 11 Periods of rising house prices Number of years and total percentage increase years 14 years 9 years 12 years 18 years Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 13 Chart 12 Total increase in real house prices At end Per cent Sources: Paul van den Noord (2006) OECD, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 14 Chart 13 House prices and disposable income Annual change. Average Real disposable income Real house prices Germany UK US France Spain Norway Japan Sweden Australia Sources: OECD, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 15 Saving Net lending Chart 14 Household saving and net lending Percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 16 Chart 15 Long-term interest rates Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin US Norway

Norges Bank 17 Chart 16 Population structure Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Number of households Growth Numbers in densely populated areas Per cent of total population

Norges Bank 18 Chart 17 Household debt Percentage of disposable income Sources: OECD, Office for National Statistics (ONS), Sveriges Riksbank, Danmarks Nationalbank, BIS and Norges Bank Norway Denmark Netherlands UK Sweden

Norges Bank 19 Chart 18 House prices in Norway Real rise and fluctuations. Per cent Real rise Fluctuations Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 20 Chart 19 Actual and simulated house price In thousands of NOK per square meter Actual house price Simulated house price Sources: Norges Eiendomsmeglerforbund, Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening, FINN.no, ECON og Norges Bank

Norges Bank 21 Chart 20 Periods of falling house prices Number of years and total percentage decline Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 7 years 4 years 2 years 7 years 5 years 11 years

Norges Bank 22 Chart 21 GDP Average growth. Per cent Sources: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 23 Chart 22 Productivity growth Per cent Services and retail trade Sources: OECD, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Mainland Norway, total Norway Nordic countries and EU15 Average Total

Norges Bank 24 Nordic countries EU15 Nordic countries EU15 InflationUnemployment Sources: Reuters EcoWin, OECD and Norges Bank Chart 23 Inflation and unemployment Per cent

Norges Bank 25 Changes in the economic system 1.Division of responsibility in economic policy 2.Trade policy 3.Tax system 3.Financial and credit markets

Norges Bank 26 Monetary policyPrice stability Fiscal policyKrone exchange rate Wage formation, structures and incentives Employment and growth 1.Division of responsibility in economic policy

Norges Bank 27 Chart 24 Start ups in the service sector Per cent of existing enterprises. Average Source: Eurostat

Norges Bank 28 Norway EU15 Sources: OECD and Norges Bank Chart 25 Female labour force participation Per cent Nordic countries

Norges Bank 29 Chart 26 Persons on benefit and early retirement schemes Number of persons – 2005 Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) Sickness benefits Early retirement schemes Rehabilitation Vocational rehabilitation Disability schemes

Norges Bank 30 Chart 27 CO 2 emissions In billions of tonnes North America Eurasia Asia and Oceania Europe Source: Energy Administration Information (EIA)

Norges Bank 31 Chart 28 Global mean temperature Trend and deviation from average 1951 – 1980, ºC Source: NASA – Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Norges Bank 32 Economic perspectives