Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Households’ risks in the Dutch housing market: Loan-To-Value and Loan-To-Income ratios Arthur Denneman Statistics Netherlands Working Party on Financial Statistics OECD Paris, October 24th, 2011

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Outline Loan-To-Value (LTV) and Loan-To-Income (LTI)  Macro approach  Data sources  Subpopulations LTV and LTI results  Overview of some highlights (see paper for all results) Concluding remarks  Micro approach: risk tables as new tool

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands LTV and LTI: macro approach Macro approach, (sub)population considered as ‘one entity’ Loan = total home mortgage of main residences Value = total house value of main residences Income = total disposable income In the Netherlands 7 million private households I 4 million owner-occupiers in NL II 85% of owner-occupiers with home mortgage Household characteristics  many subpopulations of target populations I and II

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands LTV and LTI: data sources Ministry of Finance / Tax authorities: all tax payers (7 million) Home mortgage interest deduction from taxable income  income is increased by percentage of house value  long term saving plans in parallel of home mortgage Income panel survey: 85 thousand private households  not only disposable income, also gross income etc.

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands LTV and LTI: subpopulations - Age and origin of main breadwinner - Size of household and household composition - Number of persons with income in a household - Main source of household income - Income, house value, and equity categories (25% groups) - Dwelling location: region and degree of urbanisation

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Loan-To-Income Loan-To-ValueThe Netherlands,

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Age of main breadwinner, 2009, all owner-occupiers Age ↑Mortgage ↓ (monthly payments) House Value↑ (upward house prices) Income ↑ (getting promotion / a rise)

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Origin of main breadwinner, 2009, all owner-occupiers When did they become citizen of the Netherlands? Indonesia ±1950, Suriname ± 1975, and Turkey starting from ±1970.

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Degree of urbanisation, 2009, all owner-occupiers

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Loan-To-Income Loan-To-Value 2009 all owner-occupiers

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Concluding remarks Dissemination at website of Statistics Netherlands: - LTV and LTI for ± 100 (!) subpopulations  annual data, starting from 2005  includes all kinds of reference data  first release, hopefully, at end of this year - LTI: not only disposable income, also gross income - not only macro approach, also ‘micro’ variables like median, 25% percentile, and 75% percentile - new tool to interpret data: risk tables

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Risk table, all owner occupiers 2009, number of owner-occupiers (x 1 million) LTV categories 00 – – 1>1 Totaal LTI categories – – > Totaal

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Risk table, all owner occupiers 2009, number of owner-occupiers (x 1 million) LTV categories 00 – – 1>1 Totaal LTI categories – – > Totaal

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands Risk table, all owner occupiers 2009, 4.2 million owner-occupiers (percentages) LTV categories 00 – – 1>1 Totaal LTI categories0 17% 0 – %8%1%34% 3.5 – 7 4%17%12%33% > 7 1%6%9%16% Totaal17%30%31%22% 100%

Utrecht, 20 februari 2009 Haarlem, 10 maart 2009Statistics Netherlands QUESTIONS ???