The challenge ahead: Ocean Predictions in the Arctic Region Lars Petter Røed * Presented at the OPNet Workshop May 2008, Geilo, Norway * Also affiliated with Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #2OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Challenge one: The ocean is big Greenland Norway France

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #3OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Challenge two: The eddies are small

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #4OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Challenge two: The eddies are small

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #5OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Challenge one Rossby radius of deformation is small –Range from 2 to 15 km Current computer capacity constrains resolution –Non-eddy resolving –Eddies must be parameterized Nesting of smaller areas necessary to capture eddy growth

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #6OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Sample: Non eddy resolving model SST and ice concentration

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #7OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Observation (OSI-SAF)

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #8OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Eye validation

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #9OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Challenge two Nesting conditions –Two way nesting Assimilation –Observations –Methods

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #10OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Challenge two

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #11OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #12OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Similar eddy structures?

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #13OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008 Conclusions Eddies are small scale, elusive features They spawn in one place, grow as they are advected and their effect is felt in a third place Energy analyses –Useful to enhance our understanding –Not practical as a predictive tool in its present form

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #14OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #15OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #16OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #17OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #18OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #19OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #20OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #21OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #22OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #23OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #24OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #25OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #26OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #27OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #28OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #29OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #30OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #31OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #32OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #33OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #34OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #35OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #36OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #37OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #38OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #39OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #40OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #41OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #42OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #43OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LPR #44OPNet, Geilo, May May 2008