Working Draft Bonn, Germany November 2007 The Challenge of Achieving World Class Performance: Education in the 21st Century Michael Barber

Three themes 1.The state of education 2.The characteristics of high performing systems 3.Sequencing reform

Theme 1: The state of education

The state of education: quality Access doesnt guarantee achievement BrazilIndonesiaMexico Attended school Still in school age 15 Basic numeracy* age 15 % of cohort * Level 1 or above on PISA mathematics Source:OECD, PISA

The state of education: quality Increased funding alone is not the answer Source:National Centre for Education Statistics, NEAP, Hanushek (1998), McKinsey Linear Index Literacy (17 years) Literacy (13 years) Literacy (9 years) Spend per student ($2004) Student-to- teacher ratio 50 60

Theme 2: The characteristics of high performing systems

Teachers make an extraordinary difference *Among the top 20% of teachers; **Among the bottom 20% of teachers Analysis of test data from Tennessee showed that teacher quality effected student performance more than any other variable; on average, two students with average performance (50 th percentile) would diverge by more than 50 percentile points over a three year period depending on the teacher they were assigned Source: Sanders & Rivers Cumulative and Residual Effects on Future Student Academic Achievement, McKinsey 50 th percentile 0 th percentile 100 th percentile Student performance Age 8 Age th percentile Student with high-performing* teacher 53 percentile points 37 th percentile Student with low performing** teacher

The quality of an education system cannot exceed the quality of its teachers.

The only way to improve outcomes is to improve instruction.

High performance requires every child to succeed.

Eight ingredients of great systems Select great people for teaching Train them well at the outset Constantly strengthen their classroom practice Select great leaders and develop them well PEOPLE Set world-class standards Tackle failure quickly Fund equitably and consistently Provide universal pre-school POLICY

Theme 3: A model of reform

A model of reform

A governments approach to reform needs to change as the system improves GREAT Committing GOOD Staying Grumbling ADEQUATE Exiting AWFUL

Choosing between the options CIRCUM- STANCES KEY ADVICE Command and Control Where a service is awful For very high priorities which are urgent In emergencies To drive programmes designed to tackle poverty (e.g., Surestart) Do it excellently Devolution and Transparency Where individual choice is not appropriate (e.g., policing or criminal justice) To get from adequate to good or good to great Combines well with contestability (e.g., prisons) Transparency is crucial Quasi-markets Where individuals can choose (e.g., schools, hospitals) Where a range of providers can be developed Where diversity is desirable Equity needs to be built in Combination During transitions Where variation of performance within a service is wide Where market pressures are weak Needs sophisticated strategic direction

The required cultural shift Hit & miss Uniformity Provision Producers Inputs Generalisation Talk equity Received wisdom Regulation Haphazard development Demarcation Look up Universal high standards Diversity Choice Customers/citizens Outcomes Specificity Deliver equity Data and best practice Incentives Continuous development Flexibility Look outwards ComfortableDemanding