Dan Bălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy, ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Wolfram Mauser Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich Dan Bălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy, February 18, 2013

Pillars of the Danube Strategy: Connectivity Environmental protection Bridge over Danube, Apolodor din Damasc (103-105 AD), Source: Istoria Romanilor, vol II, 2001 Pillars of the Danube Strategy: Connectivity Environmental protection Economic development Strengthening the governance within the Danube Region

Global Change Atlas of the Danube Basin - Past, present, future - Main purpose: To reflect the current and future situation of the Danube Basin within a global change perspective To be a tool for decision makers from Danube countries to respond to the challenges of a changing environment To build a product responsive to the local, national and regional stakeholders’ requirements and to assure visibility of the Strategy To clearly distinguish the threats and opportunities for the development of the Danubian community To identify critical areas in terms of environmental degradation, industrial decline, poverty and conflicts

Keywords of the Atlas Global environmental change Climate change Environmental risks Land use / Land cover change Human Dimension of global change (population, economic growth, urbanization, globalization) and human security Regional impacts of global environmental change - Extreme events and natural hazards - Agriculture and forestry Water resources (water balance / river discharge / groundwater recharge / snow cover), hydropower energy and water consumption Summer and winter tourism and cultural identity Transport Social and Economic Adaptation strategies System of indicators for adaptation (exposure and sensitivity indicators) Regional adaptive capacity to global change Simulation tools for integrating different (sub)models of various disciplines and their interactions Three-dimensional approach: spatial factor, time factor and decision-making factor Equity concerns, institutional arrangements and governance for sustainability Food security (Environmental) conflicts between upstream users and downstream users New technologies and innovation Sustainable management of resources, infrastructure development, and development of communities decentralized, self-organization, inclusive of non-state actors from industry and non-governmental organization to scientists, cross-cutting research themes of global sustainability

INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE REGION STRATEGY Regional assessment of present-day situation and of climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies Methodological approach will be based on DANUBIA system developed for the Upper Danube Atlas– a flexible framework to couple the various submodels of different disciplines with the help of the latest software tools

INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE BASIN STRATEGY It will be based on social scenarios developed in GLOWA-Danube project – social megatrends from SinusSociovision, referring to the situation of the society as a whole and its change in the future. Also, there will be used methods applied in several FP6 and FP7 projects – e.g. delineating homogenous regions in terms of their endogenous adaptive potential based on cluster and factor analyses

E Einleitende Beiträge 1 Natur- und Sozialraum Inhalt E Einleitende Beiträge 1 Natur- und Sozialraum 2 Simulationsmodelle der Teilmodelle 3 Szenarien und Ergebnisse Impressum Glossar Prof. W. Mauser – coordinator University of Munchen

Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube Upper Danube Atlas Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube

Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA Upper Danube Atlas Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA

SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECT CLAVIER APPROACH OF VULNERABILITY: Economic Vulnerability = f (Exposure, Economic Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity) High Regional Adaptive Capacity reduces Regional Vulnerability The analysis is based on a series of exposure and sensitivity indicators relevant in determining the adaptive capacity of a region to climate change Source: The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, cited by Stern, 2007 CLAVIER Economic Vulnerability Assessment complies with the IPCC approach on Vulnerability to Climate Change

ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC METHODOLOGY Data was analyzed using 2 statistical methods: Cluster Analysis and PCA 8 clusters at NUTS III level EUROSTAT INDICATORS & INDEXES: structural variables (e.g. sectoral employment, regional GDP, value added shares) spatial variables (accessibility, regional employment shares)

ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC RESULTS

enviroGRIDS try to summarize the project through a relatively complex graph. Observational data exists in many international and national organizations and these organizations started making available the important information through the GEO System of Systems (GEOSS) More observational data is exist in regional database. This data should also be made available to the scientific community through GEOSS A lot of environmental and remote sensing data will be soon stored on the GRID and will also be reachable through GEO Once this data is visible and hopefully available, it can be much more easily used by important organization such as the Black Sea Commission (BSC) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) to analyze it and communicate to the public and decision makers about the state of the Black Sea and the Danube river. A clearing house will be created specially for the Black Sea Catchment to fin more rapidly what data exist All this information will nourish the Observation Systems that we will develop to communicate with decision makers and the public through several media. 13 13

IMPACT2C Stakeholder Workshop - Significance for Romanian Researches Dan Bălteanu 13 Nov 2012 – IIASA

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS The Atlas is an interdisciplinary tool which will bring policy – relevant solution – oriented results in the main four pillars of EU Strategy for the Danube Region; The Atlas will be a dynamic digital document at NUTS 3 level based on EUROSTAT data, INSPIRE and several EU strategic and thematic directives; The “GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION” will provide (Spatial) Scientific Services (SSS) for a wide variety of socially and environmentally pressing issues raised by global change in the Danube Region’s countries and will support bottom-up initiatives. The Atlas will provide support to a broad range of stakeholders in order to ensure a balanced commitment, based on knowledge, of all the relevant priority areas of the EU Strategy.