War Room 08/31 Gold – Where Do We Stand, And Where Are We Going?

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Roger Jones, Co-Head of Commodities
Advertisements

PRESENTATION TITLECONFIDENTIAL Todays Topic: Is There a Bond Bubble? Minyanville Media, Inc. 1 Our Special Guest: Peter.
War Room 08/09 S+P Downgrade Decision. The War Room Monthly macro discussion Using tools in context Feature for subscribers only Feedback - what should.
14 January 2010 Economic Overview – global recovery continues but lacks conviction.
Market Updates and Insights Team Delta August 1, 2012.
Economic/Market Update – March 2013 Daryl Montgomery March19, 2013 Copyright 2013, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not intended.
Problems That Could Cause a Big Market Decline Daryl Montgomery June 29, 2011 Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are.
Economic/Market Update – December 2012 Daryl Montgomery December11, 2012 Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not.
IMF-supported Programs in Crisis: Countercyclical, not Procyclical! James Roaf, IMF Deputy Chief, Emerging Market Division Strategy, Policy and Review.
Why and How will global economic crisis effect Armenia's economy? 2009 Yerevan Vahram Ghushchyan, Ph.D School of Corporate Governance.
David C. Wheelock September 20, 2007 An Overview of the Great Depression.
Commodities, inflation and finance: The risks of 21 st century stagflation Jayati Ghosh.
The Baltic States: Recovery, Outlook, and Challenges Economic Crossroads: From Recovery to Sustainable Development in the Baltic States and the EU Riga,
What causes the commodity price boom? AGRI Green Team Seminar on the Health Check May 15, 2008 AGRI-G1 Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives DG.
WEALTH SKILLS CLUB TODAYS DISCUSSION: MARKET OVERVIEW: GLOBAL, LOCAL AND SECTOR MARKET OVERVIEW: GLOBAL, LOCAL AND SECTOR PRICE RELATIVE SECTORS TO FOCUS.
Flax Market Outlook 2011 and Beyond Flax Market Outlook 2011 and Beyond Jan 2011 Presented by: Chuck Penner.
401(k) Participant Behavior in a Volatile Economy Prepared for the 14 th Annual RRC Conference, August 2, 2012 by Barbara Butrica and Karen Smith 1.
Indonesia’s current account challenge
Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
Copyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008 Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund.
CPM Group Carlos Sanchez Associate Director, Research CPM Group The Outlook for Gold and Silver 30 Broad Street | 37 th Floor New.
The Dollar and the Economics of Oil 4 th Jordan AFAQ Economic Forum Amman, Jordan May 7 & 8, 2012.
1. What’s contributing to current market volatility?
Qatar Business Optimism Index Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority.
1 UNCTAD Virtual Institute Training Course on Commodities Geneva, 15 February 2010 Rouben Indjikian, Chief, CPIOS Special Unit on Commodities, UNCTAD Fundamentals,
War Room 28 March 2012 Fixed Income in 2012: Are Bonds Still En Vogue?
CPM Group Silver Users Association Washington, D.C. November 2007 Jeffrey M. Christian Managing Director CPM Group Using Silver in an Era of High Prices.
State of the Market August 2010 Daryl Montgomery August 31, 2010 Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not intended.
Monetary Policy Committee Financial Markets Developments J. Pandoo Head – Financial Markets Operations Division 14 July 2014.
Commodity as An Asset Class. FINANCIAL MARKETS CAPITAL MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS FOREX MARKET COMMODITY MARKET DEBT MARKET MONEY MARKET.
Quarterly revision of the macroeconomic projections Governor Dimitar Bogov August, 2012.
Utilizing IBD Ideas for Commodity Related Investing Daryl Montgomery Organizer, New York Investing meetup Copyright 2008 –
War Room 15 Dec 2011 US Decouples from the World.
War Room 07/20 US Debt Ceiling. War Room Monthly macro discussion Using tools in context Feature for subscribers only Feedback - what should it to be?
War Room 27 Sept 2012 QE3 : The League of Extraordinary Central Bankers.
Chapter 1 Introduction to Macroeconomics. Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-2 Figure 1.1 Output of the U.S. economy, 1869–2002.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2008 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter 23 Modern Monetary Policy and the Challenges Facing Central Bankers.
Precious Capital AG Keynote Address Precious Capital AG Keynote Address Outlook For Kenneth J. Gerbino Zurich, Switzerland Hotel Savoy Baur-en-Ville.
War Room 29 Feb 2012 Housing – Rebound or Reckoning Ahead?
REAL ASSET RETURNS GOLD/SILVER RATIO EDUCATIONAL CONFERENCE CALL.
Capital Market and commodity market are the two sides of the same coin.
The Economy of Jordan: Problems and Solutions Presented by Dr. Ohan Balian May 03, 2010 Amman.
After the Recession: How Hot? David Wyss Chief Economist TVB New York September 8, 2004.
Outlook For Financial Markets And Investment Strategy
War Room 27 Mar 2013 The Great Rally – Is the Ride Over?
The Implications of a 75-Year Cycle Top 1/24/08 Dow just broke its 75- year up trend line (see chart to right).
Classical Economic Crises Before the Great Depression.
Perfect Storm for Commodities 05 December 2013 War Room.
Perspectives on Emerging Economies Growth Vincenzo D’Apice Observatory on Emerging Economies, Luiss 22-Feb-2011.
Fisher College of Business – Student Investment Management Materials Irene Lipin Ryan Mayes Mike Longo sector analysis.
Global Linkages 1.Role Switch among major economies of the World Pre Post – and Ahead - China rebalancing forces World to rebalance 2.Euro.
ASSET BUBBLES AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008? A. G. MALLIARIS Presented to the Xavier EMBA, November 26, 2008 What are Asset Bubbles? Variety of Bubbles.
January 23 th 2015 Team FO Hedging strategy and pension fund management of IceAir.
Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd. (D&B) National Commercial Bank (NCB)
LESSONS THE U.S. CAN LEARN FROM JAPAN AND THE EUROZONE Presented by A.G. Malliaris THE TRANSFORMER ASSOCIATION SPRING MEETING Chicago, May 1, 2013.
ECON3315 International Economic Issues Instructor: Patrick M. Crowley Issue 21: International Business Cycles.
Fisher College of Business – Student Investment Management Materials Sector Analysis July 28th, 2009 Yerim Kim.
Investment Evening, Prague, 14 th December 2015 Nick Beecroft Founder and CEO, HP Economics
Getting In and Out of Futures Contracts By Gregg Peat Alex Henshaw.
1 JANA’s Quarterly Capital Markets & Asset Allocation Update – September 2014.
Global economic forecast November 16th The recovery is softening, with the weakness of private-sector jobs creation giving particular cause for.
Global economic forecast December 14th The recovery is softening, with the weakness of private-sector jobs creation giving particular cause for.
Global economic forecast November 1st The housing market has stabilised recently but a sustained recovery is unlikely until 2011 Factors putting.
Copyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008 Aditya Birla Money Monthly Commodities Insight (July 2013) Aditya Birla Money Limited.
From Turmoil to Recovery, What’s Next? Jean McGowan, CFA February 16, 2010.
Gold firmed on Monday after three straight weeks of losses as appetite for assets seen as higher risk, such as stocks, was hurt by soft euro zone data.
Le prospettive dell'economia mondiale ed europea
The Bar is Set Very High Think of an elephant trying to pole vault. Trump stimulus is the elephant. The bar is all the optimism. And the bend in the pole.
Precious metals price outlook- Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director, Commtrendz Research BSE, 7th Feb 2018.
NS4540 Winter Term 2017 Trinidad Economy
Presentation transcript:

War Room 08/31 Gold – Where Do We Stand, And Where Are We Going?

War Room Monthly macro discussion Using tools in context Feature for subscribers only Feedback - what should it to be?

Gold Market Fundamentals Past + Present

Gold Market Fundamentals Jewelry = 57% of gold demand Investments = 32% of demand Two-thirds of Q demand growth investment- related Mining is keeping pace with core demand, not investment demand Gold recycling fills the difference Gold is never destroyed – unlike oil, the total world gold supply keeps on rising over time Demand ('05-'10 5yr avg) Supply ('05-'10 5yr avg)

Gold, Inflation, and Crises - Gold responds to higher inflation, as expected - But gold has a mixed record in responding to crises USSR Collapse, Gulf War I 9/11, Gulf War II

Gold Comparisons: Silver Oil S&P 500

Silver vs Gold, Silver moves with gold, but with higher volatility Has outperformed gold during precious metals rallies

Oil, Gold, S&P: Correlation Trends Diversification? Oil, gold, and equities are thought to be non-correlated, but in fact their relationships widely vary over time.

Oil, Gold, S&P: Correlation Trends Since financial crisis, oil, gold, and the S&P all highly correlated Correlation broke down in recent correction If gold – oil correlation is breaking down, which is overpriced, and which is underpriced?

Oil – Gold Ratio, Ratio has been as high as 34, and as low as 7, with Mean at 15.5 Currently near 20 – above average but not overextended Oil Barrels Per Ounce of Gold

Commodities Boom + Bust of Surge – 19 months Gold Boom + Bust of Surge – 10 months Previous Commodities Bubbles

Comparing Oil Gold 2011 Is Gold walking on air since July, or is it different this time? Oil was Wile E. Coyote, walking on air, from May to July 2008, and then falling off a cliff.

Gold Miners are not Gold Exposure Gold Miners more tied to Markets Dont confuse Gold Metal + Miners

Gold Scenarios

Present Gold Surge – 2 months old The surge has just begun Bullish Case for Gold: QE 3 succeeds = more asset inflation Euro Zone situation further deteriorates Bubbles last a long time (JP Morgan target $2500)

Bearish Scenarios for Gold QE3 Fails: Liquidity Trap Deflation: US Becomes Japan Gold Crash (via economic recovery)