PREM Knowledge and Learning April 20, 2011

 Multiple goals: ◦ Monitor household welfare, demographic changes, ◦ Capture impact of short and long term shocks, etc. ◦ International obligations – MDGs, IDA results, etc.  Ideal Data – characteristics: ◦ Content is relevant to context ◦ Timely ◦ Regularity – dependable cycle or constant frequency ◦ Comparable  Do we have such data?

 Recent WDI exercise ◦ Many teams involved:  DECDG, DECRG, PRMPR, Regions ◦ Increased data points:  231 data points (Nov 2010) to 577 data points (April 2011) ◦ Provides answers to these questions

Only 16 countries in Africa have undertaken a survey ( )

Availability of $2 a day poverty rates since 1980s

◦ Development impact cannot be known.  Outcomes not credible  Results not believable

 Expansion or contraction of consumption list ◦ Food and non-food  Seasonality  Recall periods  Population samples  Field work errors – increase or decline  Ref: Kinnon

 Short term goals: ◦ Guideline Note – Survey choice and implementation  Support National statistics office to develop effective strategies  Rely on the guide as a tool for making good decisions ◦ Regional project  Survey Based Harmonized Indicator Program (SHIP) ◦ Retail interventions  Household survey clinics  Poverty Assessments ◦ Partnerships – DECRG, PRMPR and DECDG

 Longer term goals: ◦ Regularize and shorten the survey cycle ◦ Financing - Sustainability of surveys ◦ Timeliness - Learn from on-going innovations/experiments and explore scalability ◦ DREAM  Every country or a large plurality to undertake a survey for the period to have results for the MDG in 2015.