The oil and tanker market INTERTANKO Tanker Event Tokyo 13 May 2009 Manager Research and Projects

New growth? Sub-prime mortgages Lehman bankruptcy Sept-08 Financial crises Average GDP growth 4.4% Average growth oil demand 1.3% Growing imbalances Level two Level one Level three Economic crises No liquidity, increasing unemployment Confidence crisis Reduced oil demand Creative destruction Entrepreneurial innovation creates new growth* New driving forces *Schumpeter Level four

World GDP and oil demand change Source. IMF/BP / IEA

World oil demand outlook mbd Source: IEA +21 mbd

World oil supply major net exporters mbd Source: IEA

Questionable major oil producers mbd Source: BP/IEA

Europe crude oil import mbd Source: IEA mbd total Europe

Europe crude oil import mbd Source: IEA mbd total Europe

US crude oil import mbd Source: IEA mbd total USA

OECD Asia crude oil import mbd Source: IEA mbd total Asia

Source of Chinese crude oil import 2008 Source: IEA 3.6 mbd

World oil demand mbd Source. IEA Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW** 1Q07-4Q09

Seaborne crude trade and Middle East oil production Seaborne crude trade bn tonne miles Source. Fearnleys / IEA mbd oil production

Oil exploration activity move with oil price Source; EIA

Tanker supply

Tanker fleet, orderbook, SH tankers m dwt Jan 2009 Average age 10.1 years 90% =<20 years old 76% =<15 years old 63% =<10 years old m dwt

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out All tankers > 25,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008

Conclusion Growth oil demand correlates strongly with economic growth Future growth forecasted mainly in China, India, other Asia and Middle East Declining production in some major production countries may increase dependence on Middle East oil Structural changes in trade, increased tonne-miles Lower oil prices has reduced exploration activity A tanker surplus building up