SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Research on Climate Change DrGeorgios AMANATIDIS Environment Directorate Research DG, European Commission Research on Climate Change Dr Georgios AMANATIDIS Environment Directorate Research DG, European Commission ENSEMBLES Kick-off Meeting, Hamburg, September 2004

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS From research on environmental protection to integration of sustainability into research FP3 & 4: Research on ecosystem functioning, climate and environment protection technologies FP5:Integration of the environmental dimension in research; more attention to climate change, water, coastal integration and urban dynamics FP6:Sustainability to be integrated in all areas of research, especially Energy, Transport and Agriculture The Historical Perspective The Historical Perspective

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Over 180 research projects funded in areas (budget: 250 M) Climate change prediction Climate dynamics and abrupt changes Interactions between ecosystems and carbon/nitrogen cycle Atmospheric composition Change Stratospheric ozone depletion Mitigation and adaptation European contribution to global observation systems Natural hazards research Contribution to IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and IPCC FP5 ( ) Climate Research FP5 ( ) Climate Research

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS EPICA: Ice coring reached a depth of 3100m. Climate history record of past 900,000 years DEMETER: Capability demonstrated to predict seasonal/interannual climate variations – implications for energy, agriculture, tourism and health CARBOEUROPE: Carbon absorption capacity of Europes terrestrial biosphere reported to be about 7-12 % of the annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions GECS: Global scenarios analysing the impact of post-Kyoto policies under flexibility mechanisms for emission reduction TRADEOFF: Aviation cirrus clouds impacts on climate is three times larger than that from CO 2 emissions alone Some pertinent results of FP5 Some pertinent results of FP5

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Radiative forcing (RF) from air traffic in 1992 from IPCC (1999; coloured columns and bars with vertical end-lines) and revised estimates (white columns and bars with end-diamonds) based on recent research results (EU-project TRADEOFF, and papers by Marquart et al (2003), Mannstein, and others at this conference). The revised RF from CO2 applies to the year Note that the revised total now includes the cirrus clouds.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Sustainable energy systems (810MEuro): clean energy, energy savings, alternative motor fuels, fuel cells, energy carriers/transport/storage Sustainable surface transport (610MEuro): environmentally friendly transport, interoperability, safety Global change and ecosystems (700MEuro): greenhouse gas emissions, water cycle, biodiversity and ecosystems, natural disasters, land management, climate observation, complementary research, cross-cutting issues The 3 interrelated pillars of FP6 Priority 6: Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems The 3 interrelated pillars of FP6 Priority 6: Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS FP6 ( ) Global Change and Ecosystems I.Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone depletion and carbon sinks II.Water cycle, including soil-related aspects III.Biodiversity and ecosystems IV.Mechanisms of desertification and natural disasters V.Strategies for sustainable land management, including coastal zones, agricultural land and forests VI.Operational forecasting and modelling including global climatic change observation systems VII. Complementary research VIII.Cross-cutting issue: Sustainable Development concepts and tools

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Work Programme on Area I Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone depletion and carbon sinks Research priorities I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts I.3 Climate dynamics and variability I.4 Prediction of climate change and its impacts I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions I.6 Adaptation and mitigation strategies

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS FP6 Climate Research Projects 1st Call, 2003 ENSEMBLES – IP: Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their impacts SCOUT-03 – IP: Stratosphere-Climate Links with emphasis on UTLS ACCENT – NoE: Atmospheric Composition Change: A European Network CARBOEUROPE – IP: Assessment of European Terrestrial Carbon Balance

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Specific Support Action A Europe-South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies (CLARIS) Duration: 36 months EC support: 500 K Objective: to strengthen collaboration between research groups in Europe and S. America to develop common research strategies on climate change and impact issues in the subtropical region of South-America through a multi- scale integrated approach Coordinator: J.-P. Boulanger, CNRS, France Partners: 14 from France, Germany, Argentine, Brazil, Italy, Spain, Uruguay and the Netherlands

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS 2nd Call – New Instruments (NoE and IP) in Indent I I.1Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks; Assessment of marine carbon sources and sinks I.2Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts; Atmospheric pollutants and climate forcing I.3Climate dynamics and variability; Hot spots in the earth system Coupled climate system (STREPS) Novel palaeoreconstruction methods (STREPS) I.5Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions; Aviation and surface transport impacts on climate

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS 2nd Call for Proposals – Selected IP CARBO OCEAN – IP: Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment AMMA – IP: African monsoon multidisciplinary analysis QUANTIFY – IP: Quantifying the climate impact of global and European transport systems

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Duration: 5 years EC support: < 11.7 M Objective: to improve the ability to predict the West African monsoon (WAM) and its impact on intra-seasonal to decadal timescales as well as the consequences of climate change on WAM variability. Coordinator: J. Polcher, CNRS, France Partners: 40 from France, Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Finland, Niger and Burkina Faso Integrated Project in I.3

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (DYNAMITE) Duration: 36 months EC support: 2M Objective: to explore the fundamental dynamical mechanisms of two important modes of climate variability, the NAO/AO and the ENSO Coordinator: H. Drange, NERSC, Bergen, Norway Partners: 13 from Norway, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Romania and China STREP

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS 3rd Call for Proposals Deadline October 26, 2004 Climate related research topics: 1.Nitrogen cycle and its interaction with C-cycle (IP) 2.Ocean-atmosphere-chemistry interaction (STREP) 3.Adaptation and mitigation strategies (IP) 4.The past climate and its dynamics (IP) 5.Climate observations (IP): Contribution to GEO and GCOS

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Third Call for Proposals Deadline October 26, 2004 Earth System Observations (Integrated Project) Enhance coordinated efforts at data analysis and fill gaps in regional observing systems Interfaces, interoperability, integration and linkages between observing systems Improvement of monitoring technologies and standards Identification of a set of geo-observational products Observations for detection and documentation of climate change, including extreme events (e.g. ENSO) Provide contribution to the Group on Earth Observation (GEO) and Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Third Call for Proposals Deadline October 26, 2004 Specific Support Actions Enhancing co-operation between Europe and the developing countries within the context of global earth observation systems (GEO) Exploitation of results of research projects relevant to the GEO

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS 3rd Call for proposals November 2004

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Earth Observation Summit: EU contribution July 31, 2003, Washington D.C. Summit declaration Coordinated Earth-Observation system or systems Reference to Joburg and Evian Summits EO-Summit II, Tokyo, April 25, 2004 Earth Observation Summit III, February 16, 2005, Brussels, to discuss and approve 10-year Implementation Plan

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Earth Observation Summit: EU Contribution Ad hoc Group on Earth-Observation (GEO): Co-chair: Dr. A. Mitsos, Director-General, Research DG, EC GEO II meeting, November 2003, Baveno, Italy Participation in GEO- Sub groups and the GEO Secretariat GEO – Governance meeting, September 2004, EC, Brussels Earth Observation Partnership Conference, 15 October 2004, Brussels GEO V meeting, November 2004, Ottawa, Canada

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Air Soil Water Land-Use Hazards/Risks HabitatsSocio-Economic Nature &Biodiversity Urban Industrial Risks Soils Floods Fires Water Health Forests Topography Agro-environment Meteo and climate data Climate Change Air Noise Coastal Zones Monitoring GMES Global Monitoring of Environment and Security

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS The Six Axes of FP7 1.Consolidate transnational collaboration through common projects and networking in order to create European « Pôle of excellence »; 2.Launch technological initiatives, at European scale, in order to implement common research agendas in support of a European Industry Policy in key areas of technological progress; 3.Stimulate competition among individual teams, in particular in basic research, through the setting up of a European Research Agency;

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS The Six Axes of FP7 4.Reinforce human resources through the support of training and mobility of researchers in the perspective of enabling and developing European scientific careers; 5.Develop research infrastructure through support for the creation and for the exploitation of infrastructure of European interest as experienced with the Trans- European Networks; 6.Promote the co-ordination between national and regional research programmes.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS To build on current EU Research: Information on FP6: europa.eu.int/comm/research/nfp.html FP6 Instruments: europa.eu.int/comm/research/nfp/networks-ip.html Future research: Information