AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Avoiding dangerous climate change Dr Jason Lowe (Met Office) Dr Rachel Warren (Tyndall Centre) Dr Simon Buckle (Grantham Institute)

WATER water resources coastal flood river flood FOOD crop suitability crop productivity ENVIRONMENT soil carbon, ecosystem productivity biodiversity HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE heat effects heating/cooling needs Sectors and impacts indicators

Key findings Strong mitigation action to limit temperature rise to below 2°C avoids many of the climate impacts. …but not all the impacts are avoided. Some adaptation may still be needed The earlier action is taken to reduce emissions then the more of the 21 st century impacts are avoided.

AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Strong action to limit to below 2°C avoid a large amount of the climate impacts that would otherwise accrue by the 2080s…

Strong action to limit to below 2°C avoid a large amount of the climate impacts that would otherwise accrue by the 2080s… …… but even the most stringent mitigation will not avoid all impacts

Uncertainty in impacts due to global temperature projection and spatial pattern of climate change 21 st century Increase in water stress BAU2°C scenarioAvoided impact Billions of people

Food security: % population at risk of hunger -12% today, grows to 60% in % due to climate change; 1.1 billion people by Early action reduces this by 27%

Key findings Strong mitigation action to limit temperature rise to below 2°C avoids many of the climate impacts. …but not all the impacts are avoided. Some adaptation may still be needed The earlier action is taken to reduce emissions then the more of the 21 st century impacts are avoided.

AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts