德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学、荷兰莱顿大学 CeTIM董事长 Prof. Dr. Bernhard Katzy holds a PhD in industrial management from the University of Technology (RWTH) Aachen in Germany and a second PhD (habilitation) in general management from University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. He is lecturing MBA and Executive MBA courses at leading European business schools, e.g. St. Gallen University, Rotterdam School of Management, European Business School and ESADE Barcelona. He is professor at the University BW Munich and at the University of Leiden. He is the founder of CeTIM – Center for Technology and Innovation Management, which is located at University Bw Munich and Leiden University School of Management. His research interest is about entrepreneurial management of fast growing high-tech firms and the emerging industrial structures for the information age.

Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 移动与数字融合成长曲线2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy, CeTIM Xiaofeng Ma, CeTIM CeTIM.org

Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM workshops

Background of Roadibrom ROADiBROM is a joint European – China strategic roadmap about “Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence ” The objective is to: develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China. Intended Outcome: Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence (NEM International Cooperation) Funded by European Commission (IST-045437: ROADIBROM – SSA)

A balanced EU-China Project Consortium

Why digital convergence? Technology Push: Media convergence – Video – Voice – Data Device convergence: – Computer – TV – Mobile Phone Investigating: What will the converged world looks like? What are the critical choices we confront with? How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry? Business & Societal Impact: Changes of Individual living Emerging business models Impact on society

Why China? China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries, e.g. 3G, Wireless Communication, and Mobile digital broadcasting etc. China does not have a national standard for Mobile digital broadcasting China verified as a big market for the mobile phone (480 Million users 2006) The metropolian cities in China (e.g. Shanghai, Beijing) are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services. Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOW

Media Industry at the verge of disruptive change?! Will it happen or not? How will it happen? What will come out? (Moore 1991)

Disruptive Innovation implies change of institutions, firms, industries… THE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGN Rate of Innovation Industry level change Dominant Design Technology (Product) Innovation DECREASE, Business and institutional Change just START! Process Innovation Product Innovation 2007 2015 Time Fluid Pattern Transitional Pattern Specific Pattern How specific patterns look like? How they are developed? © CeTIM gGmbH

What does it imply for Governments and industries Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology development to social and service innovation Companies: Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions entrants will emerge Signs: Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business Nokia is becoming a media company Google is regarded as the most valuable media company though not produce any content itself

Roadmap is a strategic management tool for International Innovation Scenario Make expectations (hopes and fears) explicit Judge on likely hood of alternative scenarios Analyze implications Identify gap between state-of-art and the specific Pattern The specific Pattern Time order Gaps (and R&D actions) = roadmap © CeTIM gGmbH

Relevant dimensions of transformation 12

Workshop Objective Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholders Strategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues (transformation process)

Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM workshops

Future Media Industry Scenario Technology view: Seamless network(s) converge voice, video and data in an invisible way for users, who will be able to access services anywhere and anyhow. User view: Communities of users supported by community coaches will become most active in user centric service offerings with renowned brands,

Future Media Industry Scenario Device view: Ambient and context sensitive (sensor) will make devices “disappear” towards wearable /mobile miniature. Value Chain View: Network / Telecom operators offer infrastructure, Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches, Content production cost will disappear with “crowd sourcing” and therefore DRM will vanish. Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications, which will fund communities and dedicated professional content production

Early Examples of of a digital converged world Technology: Filmed with mobile phone Distributed within hours by YouTube Execution Saddam Hussein Industry Change: Production cost “Zero” Distributions cost “Zero” No journalist involved: freedom of interpretation / uncontrollable No broadcasting stations © CeTIM gGmbH

Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM workshops

The Brussels workshop on 11th Oct 35 participants from 10 Countries, discussed the critical challenges: Technology and Device Value Chain and Service

The Shanghai workshop on 2nd and 3rd Nov 70 participants, discussing the critical challenges from Technology and device Service and Value Chain

The Overview of the ROADiBROM activities European workshops China Workshops 11th Oct 2007, Brussels: Technology and Devices Service and Value Chain 2nd and 3rd Nov 2007, Shanghai 6th March 2008, Amsterdam Policy and regulation 6th and 7th Dec 2007, Beijing March 2008, Munich Consolidation of results Early April 2008, Shanghai www.ve-forum.org/digital convergence

谢谢! Thank you!