EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction What is supply reduction and how could it be monitored it? Paul Turnbull EMCDDA: Information needs for an effective drug policy Conference

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction What I’m going to do Why do we need to define and monitor supply reduction? Defining supply reduction Consider how it could be monitored Offer some concluding thoughts Using the example of cannabis in the UK

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction “The field in general has been weighed down with conjecture, misinformation, and limited methodology” Browne (2003) “…confounded by the wide geographical arena involved and the various levels of drug markets” Dorn (2003) Amorphous and dynamic

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Police issue warning about super strength Cannabis ! Cannabis resin, usually smuggled in from Morocco, has been replaced by home-grown super skunk as the drug of choice for sale by criminal gangs on Merseyside. Experts warn this new strain of cannabis is so incredibly strong it can bring on the early signs of schizophrenia from a single puff.

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Why define and monitor? Major focus of drug policy Continued massive investment Better assessment of effectiveness Need for continued theoretical development Informing approaches to policing Informing drug policy

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Defining supply reduction Minimize supply, increase the price and reduce availability to illicit markets Aim to achieve this via: –International/ foreign policy (source country control) –Interdiction –National and local enforcement –Most activity is focused on making drug transactions difficult

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Defining supply reduction In order to assess the impact of supply reduction activity we need to understand the interaction between enforcement activity, price and availability (Moore 1990)

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Enforcement Various agencies involved with different aims and approaches Seizures and arrests provide an overview of ‘successful’ enforcement activity Most activity is reactive Most activity is directed at users

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Enforcement Measurable but difficult to interpret –Collection periods and classification of offences can vary –Recording of offences/activities varies –Represent policing/enforcement priorities –Difficult to isolate different contributions Evidence of link to price and availability?

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Price Who is buying and how much they are buying? ‘money price’ compared to ‘effective price’? Many factors affect price beyond supply reduction (collapse of a state, demand, weather, labour costs, etc.) Inelasticity (desire and need to use) Tastes and availability Remarkably variable – place and time

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction “effective pricing”

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Availability Population-based surveys User/ offender surveys Emergency room admissions Treatment admissions Distribution routes/networks Could indicate success of demand and supply reduction but difficult to link to enforcement

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Cannabis distribution Very poor information on national/regional distribution networks Local distribution ‘fluid’/ fragmented Very few ‘open’ street based markets Club, pub, college and school Majority buy via social networks Social supply

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction 186,028 drug seizures in 06/07 Increase in seizures of 73% since 2004 –Mainly cannabis associated with the introduction of the warning system (81,311) –88 % of all cannabis seized by Customs Cannabis enforcement activity

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Overview of enforcement activity Cannabis seizures: –104,007 herbal (up 154% since 2004) a total of 25.7 tonnes –30,902 resin (down 21% since 2005) a total of 19.7 tonnes –5,497 plant seizures (up 34% since 2005) a total of 344,360 plants

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Cannabis Cultivation Tsar Retired Chief Superintendent Mark Matthews –Collect information, assess the scale of the issue, develop best practice –“any premises, whether commercial or residential, shall be deemed a cannabis farm if the premises has been adapted to such an extent that normal usage would be inhibited” = cannabis farm –Hydroponics, high intensity lighting, electricity meter bypassed, etc.

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Enforcement activity on cultivation Requested information for activity for 07/08 –50/58 forces ‘discovered’ cultivation –5719 production offences were recorded (1,400 charged or convicted - no information on nationality) –3032 farms were identified (94% in domestic premises) –501,905 plants were seized – 20.1 tonnes

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction “underestimate” No force has a strategic approach Uncover growing facilities but not drying facilities or distribution networks Most reactive incidents - reported by public, landlords, some detected heat detecting equipment, monitoring electricity supply Enforcement activity on cultivation

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction Enforcement activity on cultivation Offence = 1or 2 plants to hundreds Many offence not ‘crimed’ therefore not recorded (no victim or offender) Unless plants are found can be recorded as another type of offence Crime reports ‘poor’

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction SOME CONCLUSIONS Trends in use, supply and production appear to have little to do with local laws, enforcement or policing practices Imperfect measures; the key to improving measures is to spend more money on measurement Closer working between enforcement agencies and research/academic communities Increase usefulness of enforcement data with outside periodic auditing

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction ‘Follow the money’ Lester Freamon

EMCDDA Lisbon May 7th 2009: Supply reduction SOME CONCLUSIONS Closer analysis of supply and distribution – network analysis Detailed longitudinal work on markets User panels/Expert panels Uncertain about individual sources - triangulation Consider the role of harms associated with markets Basic research needed before we are ready to monitor