The Winter Weather Outlook Fred Schmude Manager, StormWatch Team ImpactWeather, Inc. ACP Proprietary (Internal Use Only )Not for use or disclosure outside the ACP Corporation except under written agreement Steve Elliot President, Greater Tampa Bay Chapter ACP Program Director, ACP Corporate Board of Directors Brought to you by

The Winter Weather Outlook Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.

Agenda Detailed analysis of the ocean water trends and projected La Niña Brief summary of late October Snowstorm over Rockies & Northeast Forecast temperature & precipitation trends for late November and December Forecast temperature and precipitation trends for this winter season Main hazard weather trends projected for this winter season Drought outlook for Texas and Deep South Current soil moisture profiles signal another flood risk for the Ohio Valley and Northeast

IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Warm Phase

IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Warm Phase PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Cold Phase

IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Warm Phase PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Cold Phase ENSO (La Niña) Cold Phase

IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Warm Phase PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Cold Phase ENSO (La Niña) Cold Phase AMO (Atlantic- Multi-Decadal Oscillation) Warm Phase

El Niño La Niña

El Niño La Niña November forecast -1.4C

El Niño La Niña November forecast -1.4C Winter forecast Moderate La Nina -1 to -1.4C

Historic Late October NE U.S. Snowstorm Record snowstorm struck the northeast U.S. October 29-30

Denver 8.5” Amarillo 3.1”

Denver 8.5” Amarillo 3.1” Early Season Snowstorm Oct th 12-24”...Peak at Peru, MA (32”)

Denver 8.5” Amarillo 3.1” 12-24”...Peak at Peru, MA (32”) 26 deaths 3-4 million without power Earliest heavy snow in many areas Early Season Snowstorm Oct th

FORECASTS

Colder Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Colder Than Normal Near Normal Weather Trends for the 3rd week of November 2011 Warmer Than Normal

Colder Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Colder Than Normal Near Normal Weather Trends for the 3rd week of November 2011 Warmer Than Normal STORMY Nov 14-15

Colder Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Colder Than Normal Near Normal Weather Trends for the 3rd week of November 2011 Warmer Than Normal STORMY Nov Unsettled Nov Nov 16-17

Colder Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Colder Than Normal Near Normal Weather Trends for the 3rd week of November 2011 Warmer Than Normal STORMY Nov Unsettled Nov Nov Unsettled Nov 16-20

Lower Pressure Trend + NAO & AO phase Weather Trends for the 4 th week of November 2011 L L

Lower Pressure Trend + NAO & AO phase Weather Trends for the 4 th week of November 2011 LL L Lower Pressure Trend +EPO

Lower Pressure Trend + NAO & AO phase Weather Trends for the 4 th week of November 2011 LL L Lower Pressure Trend +EPO Higher Pressure Lower Pressure -PNA L H

Lower Pressure Trend + NAO & AO phase Weather Trends for the 4 th week of November 2011 LL L Lower Pressure Trend +EPO Higher Pressure Lower Pressure -PNA L H

Cooler than normal Weather Trends for the 4 th week of November 2011 Milder than normal Milder than normal

Cooler than normal Weather Trends for the 4 th week of November 2011 Milder than normal Milder than normal UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED Milder than normal

Cooler than normal Weather Trends for the 4 th week of November 2011 Milder than normal Milder than normal UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED MOSTLY DRY MOSTLY DRY DRIER Milder than normal

Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Higher Pressure Lower Pressure Colder & More Stormy Projected Flow Pattern For December 2011 L L H H

Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Higher Pressure Lower Pressure Colder & More Stormy UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED Projected Flow Pattern For December 2011 L L H H

Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Higher Pressure Lower Pressure Colder & More Stormy UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED D R I E R Projected Flow Pattern For December 2011 L L H H

Colder Than Normal -3 to -6 F Colder Than Normal -2 to -4 F Colder Than Normal -1 to -3 F Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Temperature Outlook for December 2011

Colder Than Normal -3 to -6 F Colder Than Normal -2 to -4 F Colder Than Normal -1 to -3 F Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Temperature Outlook for December 2011 Colder Than Normal -1 to -3 F ? ? ? NAO Dependent Trend Definitely Negative

Above Normal Above Normal Above Normal Below Normal Below Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Precipitation Outlook for December 2011

Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Lower Pressure Colder & More Stormy Projected Flow Pattern For Dec 2011-Feb 2012 H L H H L

Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Lower Pressure Colder & More Stormy UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED Projected Flow Pattern For Dec 2011-Feb 2012 H L H H L

Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Higher Pressure Milder & Less Stormy Lower Pressure Colder & More Stormy UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED UNSETTLED Drier & Extreme Projected Flow Pattern For Dec 2011-Feb 2012 ARCTIC AIR Milder H L H H L

Temperature Outlook for Dec 2011 through Feb 2012 Colder Than Normal -2 to -4 F Colder Than Normal -4 to -8 F Colder Than Normal -1 to -3 F Warmer Than Normal +1 to +3 F Warmer Than Normal +2 to +4 F Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal

Precipitation Outlook for Dec 2011 through Feb 2012 Below Normal Below Normal Above Normal Above Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal

Hazard Concerns for the Winter Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and coastal gales! Seattle Portland San Francisco

Higher than normal snowfall likely Hazard Concerns for the Winter Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and coastal gales! Seattle Portland San Francisco Spokane Boise Billings Salt Lake City Reno

Higher than normal snowfall likely Hazard Concerns for the Winter Some Drought Relief...still drier than normal! Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and coastal gales! Seattle Portland San Francisco Spokane Boise Billings Salt Lake City Reno

Higher than normal snowfall likely Hazard Concerns for the Winter Some Drought Relief...still drier than normal! Elevated risk of a hard freeze near the coast Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and coastal gales! Houston Corpus Christi New Orleans Baton Rouge Tampa Jacksonville Seattle Portland San Francisco Spokane Boise Billings Salt Lake City Reno

Higher than normal snowfall likely Hazard Concerns for the Winter Some Drought Relief...still drier than normal! Elevated risk of a hard freeze near the coast Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and coastal gales! Houston Corpus Christi New Orleans Baton Rouge Tampa Jacksonville Seattle Portland San Francisco Spokane Boise Billings Salt Lake City Reno Lower than normal snowfall Washington D.C. Baltimore Philadelphia Wilmington

Higher than normal snowfall likely Elevated risk of heavier than normal snowfall Best Chance Hazard Concerns for the Winter Some Drought Relief...still drier than normal! Elevated risk of a hard freeze near the coast Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and coastal gales! Minneapolis Chicago Detroit Cleveland Buffalo Boston New York City Houston Corpus Christi New Orleans Baton Rouge Tampa Jacksonville Seattle Portland San Francisco Spokane Boise Billings Salt Lake City Reno Lower than normal snowfall Washington D.C. Baltimore Philadelphia Wilmington Best Chance

Higher than normal snowfall likely Elevated risk of heavier than normal snowfall Best Chance Hazard Concerns for the Winter Some Drought Relief...still drier than normal! Elevated risk of a hard freeze near the coast Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and coastal gales! Minneapolis Chicago Detroit Cleveland Buffalo Boston New York City Houston Corpus Christi New Orleans Baton Rouge Tampa Jacksonville Seattle Portland San Francisco Spokane Boise Billings Salt Lake City Reno Washington D.C. Baltimore Philadelphia Wilmington Best Chance Elevated freezing Rain risk Dallas Oklahoma City Little Rock St. Louis Kansas City Memphis Nashville Indianapolis Columbus Pittsburgh Philadelphia Lower than normal snowfall

Abnormally Dry (yellow)

Moderate Drought (tan) Severe Drought (red)

Abnormally Dry (yellow) Moderate Drought (tan) Severe Drought (brown) Severe Drought (red) Severe Drought (red)

Abnormally Dry (yellow) Moderate Drought (tan) Severe Drought (brown) Severe Drought (red) Exceptional Drought (dark red) Severe Drought (red)

Late season snowmelt could lead to flash flooding early in 2012

Questions

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