POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN NIGERIA: CONCEPTS THAT TRAVEL MINION K. C. MORRISON PROFESSOR AND HEAD POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY WESTERN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION SAN FRANCISCO, APRIL 2, 2010

P OLITICAL SUCCESSION O NE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS MODERN DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS DO C OMPARING S UCCESSION IN N IGERIA

What we think about when we think of Nigeria?

NIGERIA A Checkered Succession History REPUBLIC 1: PARLIAMENTARY FEDERALISM ___________________________ M ILITARY A UTHORITARIANISM CIVIL WAR _____________________________________ REPUBLIC II: PRESIDENTIALISM ____________________________________ MILITARY AUTHORITARIANISM 1985 – 1998 ________________________________________ REPUBLIC III: PRESIDENTIALISM 1999 FORWARD

SUCCEEDING P ROBLEM ? SO HARD TO DO!

What is Political Succession S UCCESSION IS TRANSITION FROM ONE LEADER TO ANOTHER

Political Succession Occurs when A NEW PRINCIPAL LEADER EXERCISES PRIMARY CONTROL OVER THE PERSONNEL AND POLICY APPARATUS B USH B OWS O UT TO O BAMA

Why is Succession So difficult? IT’S ALL ABOUT POWER P OWER CORRUPTS T HE TANTALIZING AURA OF POWER T RANSITION TO WHAT ? P OWER YIELDS NOTHING

D EMOCRACY AND S UCCESSION S USPICIONS AND R EVERENCE L EADERS, WHILE NECESSARY, ARE INHERENTLY TO BE FEARED AND DISTRUSTED T YRANNY T HE VOICE OF THE P EOPLE LEGISLATIVE PRIMACY R EGULAR T RANSITIONS ELECTIONS

Exercise TRACE AND COMPARE THE HISTORY OF SUCCESSION IN GREAT BRITAINRUSSIACHINA _______________ 1. SHOW HOW LONG THESE PROCESSES TOOK 2. ARE THESE PROCESSES COMPLETE? EXPLAIN 3. COMPARE THESE CASES TO NIGERIA

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN AFRICA? P OLITICAL C RISES S TRONG E CONOMY C ULTURAL C ONFLICT

THE NIGERIAN THIRD REPUBLIC AND SUCCESSION OBASANJO SERVED TWO TERM LIMIT, OBASANGO HANDED OVER POWER TO YAR’ ADUA 2007

YAR ADUA DISABILITY YAR ADUA FELLED BY ILLNESS LEAVING THE EXERCISE OF STATE POWER IN SUSPENSION ADUA REFUSES TO HAND OVER POWER TO VP PER CONSTITUTION LEGISLATURE APPOINTS VP GOOD LUCK JONATHAN ACTING PRESIDENT 2010

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION I S ECTION 144 (1) The President or Vice-President shall cease to hold office, if - (a) by a resolution passed by two- thirds majority of all the members of the executive council of the Federation it is declared that the President or Vice-President is incapable of discharging the functions of his office; and (b) the declaration is verified, after such medical examination as may be necessary, by a medical panel established under subsection (4) of this section in its report to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION II S ECTION 145 "Whenever the President transmits to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives a written declaration that he is proceeding on vacation or that he is otherwise unable to discharge the functions of his office, until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary such functions shall be discharged by the Vice-President as Acting President."

RISKS FOR NIGERIA A TRANSITIONAL DEMOCRACY POLITICAL CRISIS BORNE OF: COUP CULTURE ETHNIC STRIFE RELIGIOUS STRIFE ECONOMIC CRISIS ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACY LACK OF CONSOLIDATION

RETURN TO COMPARE SUCCESSION ISSUES IN OLDER DEMOCRACIES BUSH V GORE IN USA TONY BLAIR DEPARTURE IN UK PUTIN DEPARTURE IN RUSSIA

CONCLUSION AS ANCIENT WESTERN THEORISTS PREDICTED, SUCCESSION IS A GENERAL PROBLEM FOR GOVERNMENTS ROUTINE PROBLEM FOR STABLE MODERN GOVERNMENTS  ARTICULATE BODY POLITIC EXAGGERATED PROBLEM FOR TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENTS  ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACIES NIGERIA OFFERS SPECIAL BENEFITS FOR COMPARING EXECUTIVE SUCCESSION