1 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change and the Demographic Impact Eleanor Spillane Senior Projects Officer

2 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population This presentation will: Highlight the datasets that can be used to estimate population Describe the underlying factors driving population change Consider the impact on county demographics Introduce the population projections

3 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Resident population Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registration s Births and deaths Population projection s NHS patient lists NHS patient lists School Census School Census Populatio n estimates

4 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Approx. 150,000 people 1,500 per year Almost 150,000 Almost 5,000 per year Population Growth in Lincolnshire ,000 People

5 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Growth Index , , , Lincs England

6 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Growth in Lincolnshire 1990s 2000s %

7 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Change since 2001 Wyberton 10% 400 people Market Deeping 6.5% 400 people Quarrington 55% 1,500 people Witham St Hughs 76% 2,000 people

8 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Released as part of the ONS Population Estimates Taken from the civil registration system Applied to authority of residence Births and deaths

9 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Natural Change Lincolnshire East Lindsey Boston Lincoln South Kesteven West Lindsey NK SH

10 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Births and deaths People

11 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Births and Deaths ‘000 people Migration Births and deaths Population estimates

12 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Births and deaths Internal Migration National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) Transferring patient notifications

13 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration In

14 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration In Out

15 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration In 9,400 Recession Low house prices Out

16 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration to Lincolnshire ‘000 people

17 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Births and deaths Internal Migration Internationa l Migration

18 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Resident population Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registration s Births and deaths Population projection s NHS patient lists NHS patient lists School Census School Census Populatio n estimates

19 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population International Migration ,000 EU 322,000 rest of world 591, ,000 99, , ,000 EU rest of world Britain +252,000 Britain 90,000

20 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Flag 4 Registration s School Census School Census Populatio n estimates Resident population

21 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population National Insurance Number Registrations (NINo) Registrations

22 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population NINOs by District Last 5 Years 32,920 registrations in the county since 2006/07 34% 8% 16% 6% 22% 12% 3%

23 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Flag 4 Registration s School Census School Census Populatio n estimates Resident population

24 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Flag 4 GP Registrations Registrations

25 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population English as an Additional Language Over 100,000 pupils Nearly 5,000 have English as an additional language 30% 21% 7% 5% 18% 15% 3%

26 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Flag 4 Registration s School Census School Census Populatio n estimates Resident population

27 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Resident population 690,000 UKNon-UK EU Non-EU 646,00045,000 29,00016,000

28 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Key Points Population growth driven by migration Increasing birth rate in recent years In-migration rising again after 2 years of decline Major source of international migrants changed from Portugal to Lithuania

29 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Births and deaths Internal Migration International Migration =

30 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group

31 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group University opens

32 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group Peak of internal migration

33 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group

34 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Age Profile

35 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Resident population Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registration s Births and deaths Population projection s NHS patient lists NHS patient lists School Census School Census Populatio n estimates

36 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Growth Approx. 150,000 people 1,500 per year Over 200,000 Over 5,000 per year Approx. 116,000 5,800 per year

37 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

38 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

39 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

40 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

41 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

42 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

43 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

44 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

45 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

46 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

47 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

48 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

49 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

50 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

51 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

52 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

53 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

54 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

55 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

56 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

57 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

58 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

59 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

60 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

61 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

62 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

63 Lincolnshire Research Observatory Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Any questions?