1 James Gillespies Primary School: Rising Rolls Marchmont and Sciennes Community Council / James Gillespies Parent Council 27 February 2013 Lindsay Glasgow Asset Planning Manager Children and Families

2 Historic Rolls Population Aged 5-11 in the City of Edinburgh

3 Projected Rolls CEC Projected Population Aged 5-11 & School Rolls

4 Projected Rolls 20% increase between 2012 and 2019 Currently 25,900 pupils in CEC primary schools Projected to increase by 5,200 by 2019 Thereafter plateau, then start falling

5 Rising Birth Rates Number of Births in the City of Edinburgh

6 Rising Birth Rates Number of births has risen since 2004 First felt in P1 intakes in 2009 P1 intakes expected to peak in 2015/16 Total primary roll will peak in 2019

7 Forecasting Intakes Large variations at local level; peaks and troughs No close correlation between births and P1 intakes Changing trends: Migration across the city Housing market influence – less people moving Private sector influence

8 Additional Accommodation Reuse of existing space, with condition upgrade Additional, permanent classrooms being built at four schools for 2013 Part of an estate wide project with a menu of four standardised designs

9 P1 Catchment Numbers at James Gillespies Primary School

10 JGPS catchment numbers Increase in P1 catchment numbers at school of 69% over 6 years Catchment numbers have been increasing Number of placing requests to other schools decreasing

11 Births and Non Denominational Catchment P1 Intakes

12 James Gillespies 2013 P1 Intake Catchment registrations currently 81 pupils May have to create 3 rd P1 class this year Monitor numbers – eg 9 deferrals notified School would be advised in May of proposed organisation as part of standard placement process

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14 South side area: Births & Catchment Numbers (James Gillespie's, Bruntsfield and South Morningside)

15 James Gillespie's future intakes Options: 60 pupils with 3 teachers – preferred option – becomes two classes at P2 66 pupils with 3 teachers – becomes two classes at P4 75 pupils – three classes at P1; subsequent intake would be 70

16 Accommodation requirements 2 classbases in the TUs potentially cover 4 years to deliver a permanent solution An intake of 75 in 2013 would require 15 classes An intake of 70 in 2014 would still be contained within 15 classes An intake of up to 75 in 2015 would require the 16 th class An intake of 70 in 2016 would still be contained within the 16 classes

17 Permanent solutions New School to serve area? Catchment review? Permanent new accommodation ? Annexe accommodation? What other ideas do the Parent Council have that they would like explored?