Mapping of stress on native tree species across western U.S.A. & Canada: interpretation of climatically-induced changes using a physiologically-based approach.

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Presentation transcript:

Mapping of stress on native tree species across western U.S.A. & Canada: interpretation of climatically-induced changes using a physiologically-based approach Richard Waring 1 Nicholas Coops 2 Amanda Mathys 2 Thomas Hilker 1 Wendy Peterman 3 1 Oregon State University 2 University of British Columbia 3 Conservation Biology Institute Richard Waring 1 Nicholas Coops 2 Amanda Mathys 2 Thomas Hilker 1 Wendy Peterman 3 1 Oregon State University 2 University of British Columbia 3 Conservation Biology Institute I R S S

Major Points importance of mapping soil H 2 0 storage Spatially linked max leaf area to productivity value of sharing data with the public

Base map of modeled estimates of available soil water storage capacity (mm) Coops, Waring, & Hilker (2012) Predicting soil properties using a process-based forest growth model to derive estimates of leaf area index. Remote Sensing of Env. 126:

Base map of modeled estimates of soil fertility at 1 km resolution (0 = poorest; 1.0 = best) Coops, Waring, & Hilker (2012) Predicting soil properties using a process-based forest growth model to derive estimates of leaf area index. Remote Sensing of Env. 126:

Simulated max LAI ( climate) Relation between modeled max LAI & site productivity (3,356 field plots) Waring, Coops, Mathys, Hilker & Latta (2014) Process-based modeling to assess the effects of recent climatic variation on site productivity and forest function across western North America. Forests 5:

Waring, Coops, Mathys, Hilker & Latta (2014) Process-based modeling to assess the effects of recent climatic variation on site productivity and forest function across western North America. Forests 5: Simulated change in maximum leaf area index in reference to climate

Effect on max LAI when soil H 2 0 storage = 200 mm Effect on predicted range when soil H 2 0 storage changed ± 50% Mathys, A., N.C. Coops & R.H. Waring Soil water availability effects on the distribution of 20 tree species in western North America. For. Eco. & Mgmt. 313:

Project shares all data via Conservation Biology Institute’s website: databasin.org remote sensing products model code in C++ soils mapping units species present at 44,000 field sites simulated shifts in range of 20 species publications

Lodgepole pine: Predicted potential shift in range since 2000 Tree species plots

Relative change in summer soil water constraints (± 20%) contrasting climate conditions since 2000 with period

80 sites where twenty tree species are predicted to have the potential to contract (red) or expand (green) their range since 2000

Project Publications Waring, R.H., Coops, N.C., Mathys, A., Hilker, T. and Latta, G Process-based modeling to assess the effects of recent climatic variation on site productivity and forest function across western North America. Forests 5: pdf pdf Mathys, A., Coops, N.C., and Waring, R.H Soil water availability effects on the distribution of 20 tree species in western North America. Forest Ecology and Management 313: pdf. pdf Smettem, K.R.J., R.H. Waring, N. Callow, M. Wilson, and Q. Mu Satellite-derived estimates of forest leaf area index in South-west Western Australia are not tightly coupled to inter-annual variation in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate. Global Change Biology 19: (pdf).pdf Coops, N.C., R.H. Waring, and T. Hilker Prediction of soil properties using a process- based forest growth model to match satellite-derived estimates of leaf area index. Remote Sensing of Environment 126: pdf.pdf. Peterman, W., R.H. Waring, T. Seager, and W.L. Pollock Soil properties affect pinyon pine-juniper response to drought. Ecohydrology 6: pdf.pdf Coops, N.C., M.A. Wulden, and R.H. Waring Modeling lodgepole and jack pine vulnerability to mountain pine beetle expansion into the Canadian boreal forest. Forest Ecology and Management 274: pdf.pdf Waring, R.H., N.C. Coops and S.W. Running Predicting satellite-derived patterns of large-scale disturbances in forests of the Pacific Northwest Region in response to recent climatic variation. Remote Sensing of Environment 115: pdf.pdf.

Contact Information Waring, Richard Coops, Nicholas Project website: