A taxonomy of possible asymmetries for the covariance-detection result or “what are we looking for?”

Difference in probability of correct answer A taxonomy of effects Strong MN MN = “motivated numeracy” MR= “motivted reasoning”- Weak MN No MN, no MR Weak MR Strong MR “Difference in probability...” refers to difference in likelihood a person at a given level of numeracy is to correctly detect covariance when doing so is identity-congruent vs. identity- threatening

Difference in probability of correct answer 1. Radical asymmetry Strong MN Conservative/Republican Liberal/Democrat No MN, no MR

Conservative/Republican Liberal/Democrat No MN, no MR Weak MN 2. Weak MN vs. No MN/MR asymmetry Difference in probability of correct answer

3. MN asymmetry Strong MN Conservative/Republican Liberal/Democrat Weak MN No MN, no MR

Difference in probability of correct answer Conservative/Republican Liberal/Democrat No MN, no MR Weak MR Strong MR 4. Motivated reasoning asymmetry

Difference in probability of correct answer 5. Strong MN vs. Weak MR asymmetry Strong MN Conservative/Republican Liberal/Democrat No MN, no MR Weak MR

Difference in probability of correct answer 6. Strong MN vs. Strong MR Incommensurable Strong MN Conservative/Republican Liberal/Democrat No MN, no MR Strong MR

Difference in probability of correct answer 7. Weak MN vs. Weak MR Incommensurable Conservative/Republican Liberal/Democrat No MN, no MR Weak MR Weak MN