MENA Water Outlook 2050 Water Scarcity and Adaptation Options Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo

Study Design Objectives Steps Limitations Detailed water supply and demand analysis 2010-2050 Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage Steps Climate and other change projections Hydrological impact model Water resources supply/demand analysis Cost and benefits adaptation options Limitations Large scale so simplifications, generalizations

WEAP Modeling Framework WEAP modeling setup 22 countries Streams, Reservoirs, Groundwater Irrigation, Domestic, Industry 2000-2050 3 climate change models Results from hydrological model

REsults: demands

Results 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand curves MENA (AVG) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Water demand as a results of economic development and climate change for the AVG CC projection Irrigation from 213 to 265 Domestic from 28 to 88 Industry from 23 to 64 Total from 264 to 417 = 60% more Demand curves MENA (AVG)

Results Demand curves MENA (DRY) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand curves MENA (WET) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Results Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG) Unmet from 43 to 222 = five-fold Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)

Results Demand and Supply Curves MENA (DRY) Demand and Supply Curves MENA (WET)

Iran Morocco Yemen Egypt

Water Demand-Shortage MCM/year; average climate change

ADAPTATION Strategies

Water Marginal Cost Curves Closing supply-demand gap: Increasing the productivity Expanding supply Reducing demand Water marginal costs curves Assumptions: Net present value (US$ 2010)

Strategies Increasing the productivity: Expanding supply: A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties) B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture   Expanding supply: D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale) E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale) F: Desalination by means of using solar energy G: Desalination by means of reverse osmosis Reducing demand: H: Reduce irrigated areas I: Reduce domestic and industrial supply

Strategies (increase productivity) A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties) Typical examples: drip and sprinkler irrigation no-till farming improved drainage utilization of the best available germplasm or other seed development optimizing fertilizer use innovative crop protection technologies extension services Costs US$ 0.01 per m3 = US$ 100 per ha per year Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.: Egypts Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP)  US$ 100 per ha per year 2030 Water Resources Group  US$ 0.02 – 0.03 per m3

Strategies (increase productivity) B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry Costs US$ 0.30 per m3 Note: costs can vary substantially. What to do with reused water (industry, irrigation)

Strategies (increase productivity) C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture Assumptions Reuse only for agriculture No water treatment system Only operational and investment costs 50 mm per year Costs Total: US$ 0.04 per m3 50% annualized capital costs of investment 50% operational costs (maintenance, some pumping)

Strategies (expanding supply) D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale) E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale) Costs 0.03 $/m3 for small scale 0.05 $/ m3 for large scale Note: costs can vary substantially sand dams in Kitui District, Kenya  0.04 $/m3 Aslantis Dam, Turkey  0.035 $/m3

Strategies (expanding supply) F: Desalinisation using solar energy (CSP) G: Desalination using reverse osmosis Assumptions Details see presentation by Fichtner Costs CSP 0.70 $/m3 to 0.35 $/m3 in 2030 and 2050 Reverse osmosis 0.50 $/m3 Note: costs can vary substantially Especially energy Reverse Osmoses Multi Effect Distillation

SWRO = Sea Water Reverse Osmoses MSF = Multi Stage Flash MED = Multi Effect Distillation

Strategies (reducing demand) H: Reduce irrigated areas Assumptions Reduce irrigated areas by 10% Costs 0.10 $/m3 (Value of irrigation water (Water Productivity) between 0.05 and 0.15 $/m3. Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.: Crops Irrigation method Climate

Virtual Water Trade

Results

Water Supply and Demand MENA region

MENA: Water Marginal Costs Curves All values in 2010 US$ net present value

Egypt Saudi Arabia

Adaptation Costs (2050, average climate)

Conclusions Study Overall results Advanced hydrological-water resources approach In country variability Monthly approach Changes: climate, GDP, domestic, industry, agriculture Scoping study Overall results Renewable water resources 20% reduction Water shoratge 220 km3 (range 104-306) Water shortage due to climate change 14% (range 1-35) Costs of adaptation US$ 47 billion (range 12-98) Costs of adaptation 2050: 2.5% to 0.3% of GDP (current to 2050 GDP) Adaptation is possible, if policies are put in place now!

Comparison Other Studies “Economics of adaptation to climate change” (World Bank, 2010): Developing countries: 0.2 percent GDP (2030) Developing countries: 0.12 percent GDP (2050) MENA: US$ 2.5 – 3.6 billion per year (2050) “2030 Water Resources Group” MENA: increase in demand: 99 km3 (2030) Making the Most of Scarcity (World Bank, 2007): MENA: 1 – 3.6% of GDP (currently) AQAU-CSP (DLR) Water shortage: 50 km3 (current) Water shortage: 150 km3 (2050) 2050: Shortage (km3): 220 (104-306) Costs (billion US$): 47 (12-98) GDP (%): 0.3 – 2.5

Way Forward Water shortage: Water-energy nexus Unconventional decisions needed Food, environment, tourism, industry? Subsidies on water-food-energy Water-energy nexus Long and short term decisions Detailed case studies (country, topic)

Thank You

GDP projections Morocco Egypt