…SUMMER FORECAST 2011…. …SUMMER FORECAST 2011…. LA NINA IS DEAD...WILL SUPER WET COOL PATTERN CONTINUE? LA NINA IS DEAD...WILL SUPER WET COOL PATTERN CONTINUE? MAJOR DROUGHT FOR LOWER PLAINS and DEEP SOUTH GDD DAYS ISSUES? GDD DAYS ISSUES?

RAINFALL LAST 60 DAYS.. and why the Mississippi Flooded

TEMPS LAST 60 DAYS..

SEASONAL FORECASTS. Trick is finding which large scale atmospheric factors are going to be important for the Season and which ones are NOT. IF you focus on the wrong factors... your forecast will likely be pretty bad (“BUST”). Be aware of the unexpected “ THE BLACK SWAN” event... where something changes in the middle of the season It is NOT guess work

2 recent examples EL NINO everyone forecasted El Nino to last into the Spring of But Xmas week the warm water collapsed … and Jan 15 to March turned extremely cold La Nina Summer of Developed late Summer and Autumn = Summer featured No drought or even and moderate dry spells over Plains and Midwest... ideal for Beans and Corn

SUMMER 2011 in CONUS MAIN FACTORS La NINA is dead -PDO... a lot colder than Normal sea surface temps from Alaska to Baja Drought areas over Plains Super wet areas over Tenn and Ohio Valley Warmer than Normal Sea surface temps in Tropical Atlantic Ocean.

LA NINA Yes it is DEAD

LA NINA DEC 2010

FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011 European model forecasts from the Key ENSO region 3.4. show NEUTRAL conditions through SUMMER 2011

FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011 CFS model forecasts from the Key ENSO region 3.4. show NEUTRAL conditions through SUMMER 2011

PDO IS CLEARLY IN THE VERY COLD WATER PHASE or “NEGATIVE” -PDO means trough on West coast & RIDGE over SE states. For Upper Plains & Midwest this makes for very active storm track & weather pattern but for Lower Plains / Deep South the -PDO means more dryness

SSTA's sea surface temp anomalies – DEC 19

SSTA's (sea surface temp anomalies) for APRIL 10. Note the increasing area of cold water in the eastern pacific

SSTA's sea surface temp anomalies – MAY 25 Cold water in eastern Pacific (the -PDO) is still Increasing.

THIS SCHMATIC SHOW THE TYPICAL SPRING -PDO PATTERN

SEE HOW THE PATTERN RESEMBLES LAST 60 DAYS!

12 As we move into the Summer Month the Jet stream shifts North as it always does... it is essentially the same pattern... but it is getting displace North JUNE JULY

Lets look at SOIL MOISTURE... WHY? Soil moisture is the most overlooked aspect of seasonal forecasting... large areas of saturated and drought regions can and DO influence the pattern

The 2/15/11 Drought map shows the largest & deepest drought for Mid FEB since 2000

The LARGE areas of SUPER WET regions in close proximity of large areas of Super DRY DID lock in Mean storm track for most of the SPRING and enhance Velocities in both Polar and Subtropical jet stream.... enhancing severe wx threats for Midwest

Note the changes from THIS map -April 9- to the next one MAY 21

What does this MEAN? SHORT TERM TREND shows Super Wet areas over Upper Miss Valley / WCB has turned DRIER. Super wet areas are over the ECB and the NE. Drought over Lower Plains is increasing N Rockies and western/ High Upper Plains ahs started turning much Wetter

CAS MODEL With such large areas of Drought and saturated/ super saturated areas in such close proximity to each other it is worth taking a look at the CAS Model The CAS Model uses actual soil moisture and recent rainfall trends to forecast next 4 months It is updated every 3 days...so forecasters can see the trends over the course of few weeks

CAS MODEL for JUNE APRIL MAY MAY 25.

CAS MODEL for JULY APRIL MAY MAY 25.

CAS MODEL for AUG MAY MAY 25.

SUMMARY SUMMARY LA NINA is dead. Soil Moisture and COLD phase or -PDO will be in control this summer LA NINA is dead. Soil Moisture and COLD phase or -PDO will be in control this summer WCB / Upper Plains drying out… ECB is not. DROUGHT over Lower Plains is getting worse WCB / Upper Plains drying out… ECB is not. DROUGHT over Lower Plains is getting worse SUMMER of 2 extremes: ECB may have GDD problem.. WCB looks good BUT threat of HEAT from drought areas of Lower Plains coming will be main concern for the WCB SUMMER of 2 extremes: ECB may have GDD problem.. WCB looks good BUT threat of HEAT from drought areas of Lower Plains coming will be main concern for the WCB CANADA late start... again. CANADA late start... again.

OVERSEAS SUMMER 2011 DROUGHT WARNING FOR EUROPE severe or Historic drought increasingly Likely DROUGHT WARNING FOR CHINA significant drought Likely

SSTA 10 April

SSTA's 25 MAY Compare APR 10 to MAY note the DRMATIC warming in Ne Atlantic off the UK France and North Sea

EUROPE RAINFALL RELATIVE TO NORMAL FEB 1- APRIL 30

APRIL actual rainfall APRIL rainfall relative to Normal

APRIL temps relative to Normal...note how warmest temps are where conditions are driest

May rainfallTemps

UKRAINE RAINFALL RELATIVE TO NORMAL

CHINA RAINFALL RELATIVE TO NORMAL

LARGE POOL OF COLD WATER OF NE COAST OF CHINA & OVER JAPAN... MEANS THAT MEAN TROUGH POSITION OF JET STREAM WILL BE OVER MANCHURIA WHICH MEANS COLD FRONTS DEVELOP TOO LATE FOR EASTERN CHINA - DRY PATTERN

SOIL MOSITURE ANONAMLIES FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS WXRISK.COM gets raw data from CHINA... Most private AG weather forecast services do NOT.

SUMMARY SUMMARY CHINA...NCP and east central China very DRY and DROUGHT threat is growing CHINA...NCP and east central China very DRY and DROUGHT threat is growing EUROPE... DROUGHT is here... super warm SSTA in northeast Atlantic Ocean MEANS strong ridge in jet stream... keeping pattern DRY and increasingly warm … a BRUTAL hot summer (Al Gore will be happy) EUROPE... DROUGHT is here... super warm SSTA in northeast Atlantic Ocean MEANS strong ridge in jet stream... keeping pattern DRY and increasingly warm … a BRUTAL hot summer (Al Gore will be happy) UKRAINE looks barely “OK”.... right now not as bad as last Summer but NOT ideal... dry and warm UKRAINE looks barely “OK”.... right now not as bad as last Summer but NOT ideal... dry and warm

WX FORECASTS from WXRISK WX FORECASTS from WXRISK US WX... 2 reports a day.. ADVANCED level 4 reports US WX... 2 reports a day.. ADVANCED level 4 reports OVERSEAS WX … OVERSEAS WX … CHINA WX CHINA WX EUROPE WX EUROPE WX 6-10 and day 6-10 and day 30 DAY FORECAST 30 DAY FORECAST

column over at Agweb.com column over at Agweb.com Pro FARMER Pro FARMER CITI group / London CITI group / London