STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research Consortium meeting Utrecht, February 16th 2005 Buck Consultants Int., the Netherlands AUEB, Greece ITS, United Kingdom JRC IPTS, Spain / EU KUL - SADL, Belgium LT, Finland SenterNovem, the Netherlands S&W, Germany Stratec, Belgium TIS.PT, Portugal TRL, United Kingdom TRT, Italy TTR, United Kingdom UPM, Spain

Programme 9.30Opening and Welcome 9.30Opening and Welcome Sander Kooijman, BCI 9.40First results WP3 9.40First results WP3 Ge Huismans, SenterNovem 11.00Coffee break 11.15Vision on evaluation and Assessment of scenarios (WP5) Elena Lopez, UPM 12.00Vision on (im)possibilities of modelling scenario’s (WP4) Angelo Martino, TRT 12.45Lunch 14.00Towards the scenario’s Ge Huismans, SenterNovem 15.45Coffee break 16.00Program of the Soundboard Forum Sander Kooijman, BCI 16.15Preparing Clustering meeting 2 Ann Jopson, ITS 16.30Organisational matters Ernst Voerman, BCI 17.00Closing

Scenarios for the Transport system and Energy supply and their Potential effectS First results of WP3 Utrecht February 16th 2005 SenterNovem Gé Huismans + Albert Jansen

Aim of the Meeting (M) Definition of the scenarios –Decide on Definitive framework of scenarios –Decide on Desription dimensions –Decide on the description of the scenarios –input (descriptive or quantifiable) parameters for models (A) Description of the scenarios –Development of the questionnaire –Provide Names of experts who provide data and be part of the editorial committee (A) Distribute the further activities –among the participants of WP 3.

Questions sent out and answers.

Exogenous variables

Conceptual model (Budapest)

Framework by SenterNovem (Budapest)

Description of scenarios Conceptual model wp2 Conceptual framework SN or: WP4 (given WP5 = output) –Performance of the transport system –Efficiency and security of energy supply –Social and Environmental issues –Economic viability

SenterNovem: from variables to dimensions and scenarios.

How to proceed Decision on exogenous variables –by ranking and clustering –thread or chance for EU policy goals

Exogenous variables is this all 1 Globalisation 2. European integration 3. Economic growth, growth in affluence (GDP) 4. Demographics, including population decline 5. Technological progress 6. Availabilty of Energy Resources and access to them 7. Spatial development 8. Transport costs 9. Sense of urgency 10. “Liberation” of the energy market 11. Environmental policy 12. Spatial planning 13. Innovation policy 14. Transport policy 15. Fiscal Policy 16. Energy Policy

Trends WP2 - Freight Spatial concentration of production and inventory which influences the number, length and frequency of freight transportation trips. Wider geographical sourcing which affects the number, length, speed and frequency of trips, as well as the utilization of freight vehicles. Vertical disintegration of production / Outsourcing which has an impact on the number, length and speed of freight transportation. Direct deliveries which influences the number, length, speed and frequency of trips, as well as the utilization of freight vehicles.

Trends WP2 - Freight Nominated day deliveries affects the number, length, speed and frequency of trips, as well as the utilization of freight vehicles. Reverse logistics which has a profound impact on the number and frequency of trips made by freight vehicles, as well as on their utilization. Development of break/bulk transhipment systems which affects the number, length and frequency of freight vehicle trips.

Trends WP2 - Passenger Increase in mobility  Virtual mobility (tele-shopping, tele-working): Virtual mobility is also replacing some actual or potential journeys through tele-working and tele-shopping. The trend is towards increase of tele-shopping and tele-working, supported by the increasing use of the Internet and e- commerce.  Time-space compression – travelling further faster > energy intensity increases

Trends WP2 - Passenger Increase in car use: Car ownership has increased with GDP and also car use has increased in line with car ownership. Decrease in  public transport use: The ratio of public transport use to car use has decreased substantially over the last 30 years, as a consequence of increase in public car use. Energy efficiency in private cars. While the progress of fuel efficiency was rapid between 1975 and 1985, fuel efficiency gains have slowed down or even reversed.

Exogenous variables baseline trend scenario 1 Globalisation 2. European integration 3. Economic growth, growth in affluence (GDP) 4. Demographics, including population decline 5. Technological progress 6. Availabilty of Energy Resources and access to them 7. Spatial development 8. Transport costs 9. Sense of urgency 10. “Liberation” of the energy market 11. Environmental policy 12. Spatial planning 13. Innovation policy 14. Transport policy 15. Fiscal Policy 16. Energy Policy

Dimensions By clustering variables we will get a selection of dimensions to built scenarios with

Scenarios

End of morning session Have a nice lunch nextdoor!

Afternoon session.

Dependent variables description of scenarios and input for the models Which do we choose –See answers Mr. Wegener, Mr. Fiorello and Mrs. Noël –discussion on indicators WP2 -> WP4 (given WP5= output) –Which are the sources of the data needed: –Who will deliver the data ? What variables are needed as input for the calculation-models

Indicators from WP2 - Passenger The impact of the mobility trends on the characteristics which represent the level of utilization of the passenger transport system, in the context of their consequences on the use of energy in passenger transport, can be quantitatively represented by the following indicators: Passenger transport system demand (pax-km) Modal split per transport mode (pax-km/mode) Vehicle occupancy rate Average length of trips Passenger car fuel consumption

Indicators from WP2 - Freight The impact of the supply chain organization trends on the characteristics which represent the level of utilization of the freight transport system, in the context of their consequences on the use of energy in freight transport, can be quantitatively represented by the following indicators: Freight transport demand (ton-km/capita, veh-km/capita) Freight transport modal split Average length of haul Load factor Handling factor Freight transport vehicle fuel consumption

Calculation model input Which input variables do the models need

Questionnaire List of (input) variables (indicators) –How will the change till 2020 and 2030 given the scenarios –Given the data needed for our models, what the source can be We need names to send the questionnaire to: –partners, experts SBF and others (names and addresses asked for during meeting on Wednesday and Thursday) We need partners and external experts that want to be in the editorial committee for the essays

Time planning (draft) February 16 and 17: work towards scenarios (D1: Dimensions) February 22: starting work on essays February 22: sending out the questionnaire March 3: recieving the questionnaires April 15: draft version essays May 26th: presentation of results of WP3 in Krakow

Dank u wel! (thank you very much)

Indicators WP5

EU Policy - CTP (thanks Elena) The Common Transport Policy (CTP) has two basic goals: efficient, accessible and competitive transport systems a high level of safety and environmental protection. The CTP Action Programme seeks: better integration of transport modes and greater use of environmentally friendly and energy-saving modes; stimulation of new technologies; promotion of a "Citizens’ Network" to provide high-quality collective transport of all kinds; fair competition between the different modes; improvement of road safety

EU Policy - Energy Policy (thanks Elena) EU’s main Energy Policy targets: -ensure the functioning of the energy market, -ensure security of energy supply in the Union, -promote energy efficiency and energy saving and the promotion of new and renewable forms of energy

EU Policy: White and Green Paper White Paper: European Transport Policy for 2010: time to decide (EC, 2001). Four main priorities: -adjusting the balance between the different modes of transport -implementing the trans-European transport network -placing the user at the heart of transport policy -managing the effects of transport globalisation Green Paper: Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply (EC, 2000). Three major strategic priorities: -controlling the increase in demand, identifying two priority sectors : transport and construction -managing dependence on supply, no to maximise the Union’s autonomy on energy, but to reduce the risks involved in dependence -ensuring that the internal energy market works well

EU Policy - Guidelines Community Guidelines for the development of the trans-european transport networks (EC, 2004b) include essential EU transport policy objectives: -sustainable mobility of persons and goods (…) in regard to environment and competition, and contribute to strengthening economic and social cohesion, -be, insofar as possible, interoperable within modes of transport and encourage intermodality between the different modes of transport; -facilitate access in general, link island, landlocked and peripheral regions to the central regions and interlink without bottlenecks the major conurbations and regions of the Community;

EU Policy - Main concerns The main concerns from the European Commission on energy and transport issues (as stated in a Report from the Directorate of Energy and Transport): Traffic congestion reaching disturbing levels, with the existence of certain bottlenecks on the major intra-Community routes and its negative economic impacts, Lack of interoperability between modes and systems, Growing imbalance between different modes: growing air and road market shares and decreasing rail and sea modes, Traffic safety: although the situation in the EU-15 has improved in recent years, the new Member States show alarming results,

EU Policy - Other issues Important other issues: -Decoupling transport and GDP growth, while dealing with increasing mobility needs; -Physical supply on the short term; -Price of energy (particularly of oil > implications in terms of GDP growth reduction); -Growing globalisation and unstable geopolitical context (>dependency on imports from e.g Russia); -Climate change and its consequences on the deterioration of the environment on the long term (Kyoto).