Risiko – Risk-in-a-Box An open source risk modelling platform Jonathan Griffin – Geophysicist, AIFDR

Who is AIFDR? An initiative of the President of Indonesia and Prime Minister of Australia to – Strengthen Indonesias capacity in disaster risk management, and promote a more disaster resilient region. Jointly directed by BNPB and AusAID

Risk in a Box Indonesias 2007 DM Law requires all Provinces and many Districts to: – Develop a disaster management plan – Based on a risk assessment Need a tool to facilitate these assessments – Open source, freely available and can run with or without internet

Risk in a Box Framework for calculating spatial impact using a range of software tools Aims at underpinning risk assessment requirements Partnership with World Bank (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) and Geoscience Australia

Impact assessment Input Hazard map (earthquake ground shaking, tsunami inundation depth, volcanic ash load...) Exposure map (population density, buildings) Plugin for calculating impact (vulnerability curves) Output Map of calculated impact at exposure locations Specific statistics

Hazard Footprint Exposure FatalitiesFatalities 0%0% 100%100% MMIMMI Impact Function (vulnerability) Generic Impact Assessment

Maumere, Flores, Tsunami simulation 1992 Tsunami generated by magnitude 7.8 earthquake ~ 2,000 fatalities Maximum magnitude considered possible on Flores Thrust is 8.1 Population and infrastructure has grown since 1992 Therefore historical event is not enough for disaster planning Observered tsunami run-up heights from 1992 event. Field Survey by Tsuji (1995)

Tsunami inundation modelling

Inundation model results – Mw 8.1

Risk in a box - Inundation

Building data digitised from OpenStreetMap

Vulnerability function Based on BNPBs tsunami risk assessment guidelines DepthDamage < 1 m< 25% 1-3 m25-50% > 3 m50-100% Koshimura Fragility functions from post-tsunami data in Banda Aceh

Impact assessment

Hazard Footprint Exposure FatalitiesFatalities 0%0% 100%100% MMIMMI Impact Function (vulnerability) Sharing and combining multiple data sources Built using a GeoNode

Earthquake impact – Hazard, Mw 7.8

Exposure - population

Impact

Real time earthquake impact –use the same framework

More than a Risk Map Geospatial data analysis Adaptable to different questions – Scenario impact assessment for disaster planning – Real time impact assessment – Financial risk assessment Different vulnerability functions can be used to solve these problems

Challenges Vulnerability functions Improving map look and feel Tools to facilitate exposure data upload

Risk in a Box summary A platform for data sharing and analysis to support resilient decision making A flexible environment that can be adapted to disaster managers needs Combines the best of expert hazard and vulnerability expertise with local knowledge of exposure All software free and open source

Questions