Building resilience to climate change Research at Tyndall-Southampton Geography What are the physical, technical and feasibility limits to adaptation? How can we incorporate representations of adaptation into generalised impacts models? What are the implications for different rates of change for global-scale impacts? Nigel Arnell and Matt Charlton Leader Prof Neil Adger University of East Anglia Deputy Leader Professor Nigel Arnell University of Southampton What are the limits to adaptation?

Linkages Limits to adaptation Global-scale impacts Representing adaptation CIAS Climate change and water management in UK Case study QUEST Indicators Defra Fast Track+ Building Resilience

i.Physical limits - change is so great that the impacted system is destroyed - change is so great that it is physically impossible to reduce loss iii.Feasibility limits - social and political constraints on options iv.Capacity limits - limited institutional capacity to make adaptation decisions ADAPTATION ii.Financial limits - it is too expensive to respond to the impact Limits to adaptation

e.g. “a part of southern England”: balancing water supply and demand - environmentally / politically feasible new sources: 2-5% of current supply - feasible demand management measures: 5-8% of current supply -radical changes in demand 5-10% of current supply By 2020 climate change could reduce supplies by 10%

Incorporating adaptation How can we incorporate effects of adaptation into simulations of impacts of climate change – particularly at the global scale? Diversity of circumstances Diversity of objectives of adaptation Diversity of ways of meeting adaptation objectives Uncertainty over effectiveness of adaptation actions

Incorporating adaptation Use a generic indicator of adaptation – eg continue to provide same standard of service Assume continue to provide protection against 50-year flood, with different lag times

Global-scale impacts

Estimate implications of different rates of climate change for global-scale impacts, taking into account adaptation

Global-scale impacts Aims: To examine, map quantitatively and assess the implications of different rates and degrees of climate change for a wide range of ecosystem services across the global domain To provide a framework for assessing the impacts of specific climate policies (i)A geographically-explicit, global-scale assessment of specific scenarios and policies (e.g. SRES scenarios, 2 o C target, etc) (ii)Construction of climate impact response functions for rapid assessment of implications of multiple scenarios

Global-scale impacts ? £1.4m

Building resilience to climate change Research at Tyndall-Southampton Geography What are the physical, technical and feasibility limits to adaptation? How can we incorporate representations of adaptation into generalised impacts models? What are the implications for different rates of change for global-scale impacts? Nigel Arnell and Matt Charlton Leader Prof Neil Adger University of East Anglia Deputy Leader Professor Nigel Arnell University of Southampton What are the limits to adaptation?