Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Coastal Wave – Surge Modeling R. Luettich, J. Fleming, B. Blanton, C. Kaiser, Jie Gao NW NE SW SE NW NE SW SE

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Project Overview Advance the state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling Use state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling to meet operational needs Disseminate / train community in the state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling. Project Relevance to DHS S&T Mission/Impact of Project Risk determination and delineation - FEMA National Flood Insurance Program Event based forecasting – partnership with NHC / NWS – Irene, Isaac, Sandy Initial post storm damage estimates Training exercises

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Technical Approach ADCIRC + SWAN + ancillary support models ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – ASGS “ADCIRC Bootcamp” NetCDF, OpenDAP, Thredds, data standards / Matlab tools CERA website + outreach to EMs + moble apps

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Progress to Date Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study NC SLR pilot study Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for interoperability & tools to access / visualize results Improvements to parametric wind model

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from H*Wind (m)

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from OWI Wind (m)

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from Asymmetric Vortex Gradient Wind (m)

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Progress to Date Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study NC SLR pilot study Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for interoperability & tools to access / visualize results Improvements to parametric wind model PRIME TIME USE – Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week) – Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble – Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble – Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI,

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Progress to Date Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study NC SLR pilot study Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for interoperability & tools to access / visualize results Improvements to parametric wind model PRIME TIME USE – Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week) – Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble – Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble – Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI, 3 annual “ADCIRC Bootcamps” (25 – 35 attendees / year)

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 ADCIRC Bootcamp 2012

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Current Translation Activities and End Users FEMA NFIP study – various working groups ADCIRC bootcamp NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites ADCIRC_Viz Briefings for USCG, USACE, NHC, public media Products Numerous publications and presentations NC FEMA NFIP reports NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites

Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5 th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013 Looking Forward Careful evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN modeling system for recent storms Enhancements to parametric wind model – see Jie Gao poster Expansion of groups running ASGS around US and integration of results from multiple sources HURRICANE SANDY