Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection Matthew Elkins

,000 Matt A Theory on Relativity 99

3 24,999 25, ? Deterministic Probabilistic Definition of the Denominator

4 Applied to Electricity 25,000 Expected Generation

5 Probability Distribution

6 Expected Margin Margin 25%

7 Reduced Margin

8 Margin 5%

9 Probabilities

10 Reduced Margin

11 ~50% Independent Probability P(A) * P(B) ~50% X ~50% = ~25% MW Vulnerabilities

12 Risk Analysis

13 Increased Supply Variability Generation Outages Transmission Outages Fuel Adequacy Misoperations

14 Increased Risk

15 Increased Risk