C ZECH BLOSSOM CASE STUDY FLIS Blossom meeting 17 –18 June 2013, Copenhagen Klára Vočadlová CENIA, czech environmental information agency

LONG-TERM THINKING AND GOVERNANCE LANDSCAPE - H ISTORY Before 'future thinking' connected with socialist centrally planning, environmental foresights did not exist, absence of legal and institutional framework in the environmental protection After 1989 (Velvet Revolution) – during 1990s first environment related strategic documents, 1995 first State Environmental Policy 2004 – accession to the EU, adoption and implementation of EU directives

LONG-TERM THINKING AND GOVERNANCE LANDSCAPE – P RESENT Conception and strategic documents – environmental or including environmental components, use a forward-looking approach, mostly without scenarios Future scenarios and long-term foresight studies are not in common use in policymaking Forecasts and projections, quantitative scenarios x qualitative and context scenarios are lacking Direct impact on environmental policymaking - primary intended for decision-making, mainly participation of experts, high level of political and ideological involvement Foresight agenda is not institutionalised, not organised in a particular programme at national level, no formal requirements or methodology Temporary ad-hoc groups or committees leading the process

Central approach Level: governmental, national Role: coordination, setting a main strategy, cooperation Studies: main cross-cutting strategic documents (Strategic Framework for Sustainable Development ) direct relevance to the EU legislation and strategic documents Sectoral approach Level: Ministries, departmental, national Role: coordination, cooperation, production Studies: departmental strategies integrating environmental issues (State Environmental Policy, State Energy Policy, Potential for reduction of air pollutant emissions in the year 2020) R ESPONSIBILITIES

Regional and local approach Level: local authorities and self-governing territorial units (regions, municipalities) Role: coordination, cooperation Studies: short-time strategic documents with regional or local extent (Strategic Plan for Prague) Research and nongovernmental approach Level: all research organisations, universities, NGOs, private companies Role: scientific support for strategic planning cooperation with governmental institutions on preparation of strategic documents external examiners political and ideological opponents R ESPONSIBILITIES

I NSTITUTIONS INVOLVED

S TAKEHOLDERS AND EXTERNAL RELATIONSHIPS Public involvement: Through Strategic Environmental Assessment Through NGOs and public initiatives

BLOSSOM CASE STUDY – P ROCESS OF SELECTION Find the study key organisations Criteria Horizon – time span 5–10 years and more Coverage – CZ Topic – economy, demography, environment Availability – public 3 studies 2020, 2040 Climate change, air pollution, energetics CZ – national level

BLOSSOM CASE STUDY – S ELECTED STUDIES – T EMPLATE 2 National Program to Abate the Climate Change Impact in the Czech Republic – 2020 (2030), Ministry of the Environment, three GHGs emissions scenarios, exploratory, quantitative Potential for Reduction of Air Pollutant Emissions in the Czech Republic in the year 2020 – Ministry of the Environment, scenarios of five main air pollutants (GAINS model), normative, quantitative State Energy Policy of the Czech Republic – 2040, Ministry of Trade and Industry, only one preferred scenario of development and structure of basic energy indicators, exploratory and normative, quantitative

B ARRIERS & S UCCESS FACTORS Barriers Forward-looking issues are not institutionalised Any formal requirement to provide long term analysis Weak linkage between policy making and foresight (scenarios) – short-term and mid-term policy making Forward-looking studies - tool for strategic planning and sectoral environmental policy, scenarios are not in common use Lack of political support and staff continuity (departmental changes) Success EU as a driver Existence of main sectoral strategies Good situation concerning climate change and air pollution scenarios Expert base, research

BLOSSOM: USEFULNESS, CHALLENGES, SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS FORWARD Find gaps and weaknesses of future thinking in the country Institutional support and budget allocation is lacking Weak historical experiences General mistrust of long-term scenarios – uncertainty x certainty Recognise new problems and challenges Input for strategic discussion Support for current policy Comparison with other countries – inspiration, lesson learn, deadlocks

Find a way how to…: Integrate scenarios in common decision making and strategic thinking Transform a short-term orientation into a long-term Integrate future organisations – networking, stimulate open discussion, create a common foresight platform Connect scientific and politic rationality Create pressure on policy makers Popularise forward-looking approach BLOSSOM: USEFULNESS, CHALLENGES, SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS FORWARD