South Region LNG market changes and cross border flows SGRI – 15th November 2013
Agenda 1.France Zone North – Zone South flows 2.France - Spain cross-border flows 3.Spain – LNG and Third country flows 4.Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows
Transmission demand in 2012 Main evolutions vs Drop of LNG supplies – -38% between 2011 and 2012 – -50% at Montoir Historical cold snap in February 2012 – 10 days at record levels with daily consumption above GWh/day Higher entries at Dunkirk (+12%) and Obergailbach (+38%) to offset LNG’s supplies Growing exports to Spain (+18%), decreasing to Italy (-34%) 3
Transmission demand in 2012 High rate of long term subscription : – PIR~100% Lesser bookings at PITS High utilization of subscribed capacities at PIR – Lesser use of regas capacities Maximum utilization of the North / South Interconnection Point All points used at least one time at their fully booked capacities 4 AA 88 % LT 100 % AA 82% LT 100% AA 32 % LT 100% AA 62 % LT 94% AA58 % LT 92% AA 19% LT 87% AA 63% LT W 61% LT S 89% AA 93% LT 100 % Annual Average LTsubscription Daily Maximum use below 100% AA 70% LT 100% AA 15% LT 100% AA8% LT15 %
Transmission demand in 2012 High use of capacities at PIRs reflecting the global increase of gas flows through pipelines in Rate of subscription
Transmission demand in 2012 Sharp drop at Oltingue and at PITTM, an increase at PIR Midi 6 OLTINGUE LNG MONTOIR LNG FOS MIDI Rate of subscription
North-South link (1/2) High rate of subscription and increased use in the current market situation 7 Firm capacities limited to 230 GWh/day between North and South Due to LNG drop, North South IP used at 93% on average in 2012 Average spread at 1.6 €/MWh in 2012 with higher points at 7 €/MWh Market coupling and joint transport storage services introduced to relieve the congestion Rate of subscription
North-South link (2/2) 8 Nota: Maximum technical capacity = Firm + Interruptible
Midi IP 9 Nota: Maximum technical capacity = Firm + Interruptible
Montoir 10 Nota: Maximum technical capacity = Firm + Interruptible
Fos 11 Nota: Maximum technical capacity = Firm + Interruptible
Agenda 1.France Zone North – Zone South flows 2.France - Spain cross-border flows 3.Spain – LNG and Third country flows 4.Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows
13 Larrau Interconnection Point (Historical) Winter Firm marketable capacities Subscribed capacities Average nominations Nominations * Rate of use of subscribed capacities Summer All firm marketable capacities (France Spain) have been subscribed Between 2008 & 2012 shippers have used around 70 % of their capacities. Strong increase of rate of use for the last 3 years 50% en 2010 around 100 % in2012
14 Larrau Interconnection Point (2013) Capacity increase 1st april 99% rate of use 64% rate of use 10% rate of use
15 Biriatou Interconnection Point (2013) 76% rate of use
Agenda 1.France Zone North – Zone South flows 2.France - Spain cross-border flows 3.Spain – LNG and Third country flows 4.Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows
17 Utilisation of LNG terminals Decrease of LNG terminals use HUELVA BARCELONA CARTAGENA BILBAO
18 Utilisation of LNG terminals Decrease of LNG terminals use SAGUNTO REGANOSA * Data as from 1 April 2008
19 BARCELONA
20 HUELVA
21 CARTAGENA
BILBAO
SAGUNTO
REGANOSA
Utilisation of Third country IPs TARIFAALMERIA * Data as from March 2011
TARIFA
ALMERIA
Agenda 1.France Zone North – Zone South flows 2.France - Spain cross-border flows 3.Spain – LNG and Third country flows 4.Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows
29 Portugal – Spain Interconnections and Sines LNG Terminal IP 34 – Valença do Minho / Tuy (V.M./Tuy) IP 35 – Badajoz / Campo Maior (Badajoz/C.M.) Virtual Interconnection Point (VIP) Sines LNG Terminal Cross-border flows occur >99% through Badajoz/C.M. IP LNG / NG split is around 43%
30 LNG and Cross-border Flows Historical Data ( ) Sines LNG Terminal Cross-border - Import Cross-border - Export CAGR: -11.2% CAGR: +4.2% Physical flows in export direction only occur at V.M./Tuy IP
31 Sines LNG Terminal 2013 (Jan-Oct)
32 Interconnections Portugal-Spain 2013 (Jan-Oct)
Thank you for your attention