Ocean variability to ecosystem links in the Northern California Current

The PDO and salmon survival correlate in the NCC Slide: W.T. Peterson

Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies: Hooff and Peterson 2006

CCI score PC1 of copepods CCI Timeseries Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCI Ordination Axis 1 scores CCI score WarmCold Warm Cold Monthly anomalies PDO:CCI correlation R = 0.5, p<0.01

Calanus Warm years Cold years Copepod Community relates to salmon survival:

Vancouver Island Central Oregon Central California Southern California Anomalies in zooplankton species groups show coherence along the Pacific US coast:

Synchrony among North East Pacific time series (Mackas and Beaugrand 2010) CalCOFI stratification from McGowan et al BC/OR (British Columbia/Oregon) from Mackas et al CA (California) from Rebstock (2002) and Lavaniegos & Ohman (2003) Kuroshio region (KUR) from Nakata & Hidaka (2003) KOR (Korean coastal water) from Rebstock & Kang (2003 Arrows indicate timing of major shifts within each region

PDO - Cold PhasePDO - Warm Phase Climate-Forcing Hypothesis: Basin-scale circulation links the PDO to local ecosystem change. Strub, modification of Chelton and Davis, 1982

Basin-scale control of ecosystems? E. Di Lorenzo J. Keister A. Thomas PT Strub WT Peterson S. Bograd P. Franks F. Schwing K. Chaak A. Bracco International collaborators: Japanese: (Chiba, Sasai, Sagaki, Tagushi, Ishidi, Nonaha), Chilean: (Escribano, Hormazabal, Pizarro, Rutllait, Montecino); Canadian (Mackas, Foreman, Pena, Crawford)

The test of the transport hypothesis Compare modeled transport to zoop. observations Nested ROMS model 10 km resolution 30 vertical layers boundary conditions from World Ocean Atlas climatology nudged at open boundaries forced by NCEP winds and SST Passive tracers released continuously along the 4 regional domain boundaries (NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST) with 12-month decay scales. Time series integrated over 1x2 degree region centered on zooplankton observations.

Passive tracers capture the seasonality in advection: Winter Spring Summer Fall East West South North particle concentration

From EAST From SOUTH From NORTH From WEST Model hindcast CCI = NORTH tracer + SOUTH tracer + EAST tracer + WEST tracer + ε Passive Tracer Time Series Keister et al. 2011

R = 0.36 Model hindcast CCI Observed CCI (5 year lowpass) R = 0.95 Model hindcast CCI Observed CCI (5 year lowpass) R = 0.9 Model hindcast CCI Model PDO Keister et al Advective control of zooplankton communities?

1. Diapause transport in the CCS Data re-analysis Divided Northeast Pacific into 6 ‘natural’ regions Investigated patterns of retention and export between these regions California Coast Northern California Coast Oregon Coast Washington Coast British Columbia Coast Gulf of Alaska

1. Diapause transport in the CCS Seed Latitude Diapause Emergence Latitude Connectivity Plot for All Diapausing Copepods,

1. Diapause transport in the CCS Seed Latitude Diapause Emergence Latitude Connectivity Plot for Particles left year round at 10m depth,