World Bank 18 June William. M. Lapenta and Jordan Alpert Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Numerical Weather Prediction: Science Serving Society

World Bank 18 June Presentation Outline  The National Centers for Environmental Prediction  Why NOAA Conducts Operational Numerical Weather Prediction  Near-term NCEP Model Development Plans  Growing use of NWP Information  Data Dissemination: NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS)

World Bank 18 June The National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC HPC SPC SWPC AWC OPC NHC NCO EMC

World Bank 18 June 2013 NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate, Weather, and Ocean Products Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. 4 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center

World Bank 18 June Global Observing System 2. High Performance Computers 3. Data Assimilation, Modeling and Post Processing Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction Enterprise…. Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction 5 The NOAA Operational Modeling Enterprise NOAA Science Serving Society….

World Bank 18 June 2013 NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission –Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA  Required for agency to meet service-based metrics –National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act)  Hurricane Track and Intensity  Winter Storm Warning  Precipitation Threat  Flood Warning  Marine Wind Speed and Wave Height –Operational numerical guidance:  Foundational tools used by government, public and private industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth 6 Lead Time and Accuracy!

World Bank 18 June 2013 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Refresh Dispersion (smoke) Global Ensemble Forecast System Regional Hurricane (HWRF & GFDL) WavesGlobal Ocean Space Weather Spanning Weather and Climate Tsunami Whole Atmosphere HRRR NMME Wave Ensemble Bays Storm Surge Global Dust Fire Wx 7

World Bank 18 June 2013 Number of Nodes High Water Mark h Snapshot 20 August 2012 Time of Day (UTC) Numerical Guidance Suite Execution on the Operational NOAA Supercomputer 8 CFS NAM GFS GEFS SREF

World Bank 18 June 2013 Posted within15 min TOC retrieved within 15 min 2011 Computing Capability “Reliable, Timely and Accurate” Current –IBM Power6 –74 trillion calculations/sec –27.8 million model fields/day –Primary: Gaithersburg, MD –Backup: Fairmont, WV –Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes Next Generation –IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux –Primary: Reston, VA –Backup: Orlando, FL –178 trillion calc/sec –Go-live date expected on 16 July 2013

World Bank 18 June Looking Forward… NCEP Global Systems Into 2015

World Bank 18 June Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales Predictability Research: e.g., South East US Drought Model Evaluation and Development Initialization Strategies: e.g., Land, Ocean Fosters interaction between research and operations Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center Participating Organizations: University of Miami - RSMAS National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Center for Ocean-- ‐ Land-- ‐ Atmosphere Studies (COLA) International Research Ins7tute for Climate and Society (IRI) Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon) National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Project Data are available at: NASA – GMAO NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC NOAA/GFDL Princeton University University of Colorado (CIRES

World Bank 18 June NAM Implemented 18 October 2011 NEMS based NMM Parent remains at 12 km Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr –~4 km CONUS nest –~6 km Alaska nest –~3 km HI & PR nests –~ –~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET possible Rapid Refresh Scheduled implementation 20 March 2012 WRF-based ARW Use of GSI analysisUse of GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Experimental 3 km HRRR RUC-13 CONUS domain WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR NCEP Mesoscale Modeling for CONUS:

World Bank 18 June Convective Scale NWP: High Impact Weather  Initialized with RAPv2 analysis  12km parent domain with 1.3km moving nest  Nest motion prescribed  Output every 10 minutes  Supports NOAA WoF and WRN initiatives  Ongoing development:  Nest movement based on phenomena of interest  2-way nesting for hurricane applications  Computationally efficient 1.3 KM NMM Moving Nest applied to 29 June 2012 Derecho Simulated maximum composite radar reflectivity

World Bank 18 June 2013  Coordinated forecast guidance requires:  Following weather events with long lead times from Global models  Regional and mesoscale for localized severe weather  Prediction and warnings for High impact events  Challenging in the absence of adequate real time observational networks in developing countries  Deterministic ensemble prediction systems:  Dynamical downscaling  Statistical adjustment generate the needed information  Application of uncertainty information Role of NWP in the Forecast Process

World Bank 18 June 2013  NCEP serving as a global center in support of the Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP) since 2006  African Desk represents NCEP in the SWFDP  Provides access to NCEP global and regional data and products  Offers professional development training to weather forecasters as part of the US contribution to the WMO VCP  Trained 33 meteorologists from 23 countries across Africa in weather forecasting and in NWP since  Implemented a website to provide access to NCEP NWP guidance Meets the needs and requirements of the forecasters in Africa Extends globally as part of an outreach to the international community  Model development benefits from global customer feedback NCEP Scientific Developments Impacts on Life, Property and Commerce

 Need for Climate and Weather model output data  NOMADS is a distributed data service for format independent access to climate and weather models and data.  At WFO’s, and Regions, University and Institutional research, NOAA and other scientist’s. effort is wasted on data receipt and format issues with not enough infrastructure to collaborate. Overview – What is NOMADS  Servers with services for Users in WFO’s and elsewhere to get data.  Apps to Slice, Dice and Area subset model output packed binary data sets  Slice across the complex dimensions of model output file matrix.  NOMADS serves data. Display is done by the user (client)

World Bank 18 June Data Distribution: NOMADS NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System 17  Users: constrained queries or use own programs to get select data  Commercial packages such as IDL, MATLAB and freeware analysis and display software such as GrADS  NCEP server data sets appear as local files on the users workstation  Only the requested data that is needed gets transferred conserving band width  Unpacking, and organizing data across the separate packed binary files is done by aggregation on the server  Results in the best performance possible from server hardware and firmware

World Bank 18 June Summary Thoughts on numerical weather prediction:  Operational NWP systems increasing in resolution and complexity  Applications continue to evolve  Demand continues to increase as do the data volumes produced  Requires effective sharing of data between global and regional centers Data Dissemination and NOMADS  A digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models  Integrator of common web services infrastructure to support the discovery, access and transport of data and model ensemble data service dissemination  Unified Access Framework approach to data interoperability  Metadata descriptions and format independent file access, no registration and no fee  The transfer of appropriate data to where it is needed in useable form is key to making relevant forecasts