CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing

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Presentation transcript:

CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Current Real-time Extended-Range Forecast Configuration Implemented April, 2011 – Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) Old system Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFS.v1) – implemented September, 2004 Still operational (at least until 31st October, 2012) Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CFS Version 1 vs. Version 2 CFS.v1 CFS.v2 Atmosphere GFS 2003 (T62/L64) GFS2009 (T126/L64) Land OSU 2-L NOAH 4-L Ocean MOM3 MOM4 Sea ice Climatology Predicted CO2 Fixed at 1988 level Evolving with time Initial conditions R2/GODAS CFSR Hindcast 15/month ~24/month (4 runs / 5 days) Forecast 4 runs/day 4 runs/day (seasonal) 16 runs/day (45 days) http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

CFS.v2 Real-time Forecast Configuration Coupled model T126/L64 MOM4 MOM4- Sea-ice Seasonal: 4 runs/day; 9-month predictions Monthly: 16 runs/day; 45-day predictions Initial conditions for the ocean, atmosphere, land are from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) Real-time forecast products are calibrated based on the hindcasts climatology Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

CFS.v2 Hindcasts : Seasonal Period : 1982 - 2010 4 runs/day; every 5th day Hindcasts are used for Lead time dependent climatology Calibration (mean; standard deviation) Skill assessments and skill masks Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

CFS.v2 Hindcasts : Monthly Period : 1999- 2010 4 runs/day; 45 day Hindcasts are used for Calibration (mean; standard deviation) Skill assessments and skill masks Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Seasonal Forecasts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Seasonal Forecasts : Hindcast Verification Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Nino34 SST standard deviation CFS.v1 vs. CFS.v2 CFSv1 CFSv2 CFSv2 CFSv1 Obs Obs Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Hindcast anomaly Correlation – Sfc. Temp. Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

T2M: HSS in Spatial Domain Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Monthly Forecasts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Monthly Forecasts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Forecast Display CFS.v1 Seasonal: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/ Monthly: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/cfsFcst/cfsMonPlot/monthPlot.html CFS.v2 Seasonal: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ Monthly: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ Weekly: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2HCST/metrics/ Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Hindcast Data Forecast Data CFS.v1 http://www.cdacb.in/html/spim_data.aspx CFS.v2 NCEP: http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid0/cfsv2/reforecast.monthly NCDC: http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#cfs-refor Forecast Data CFS.v1 ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/ CFS.v2 http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/cfs/prod/cfs Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

National MME (NMME) Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

National MME (NMME) http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/ Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

Questions? Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012