SWFDP Synergy with and Contribution to the EAC’s Five-years Meteorological Development Plan and Investment Strategy ( ) By Ruben K. Barakiza Institut Geographique du Burundi( IGEBU) Meteorological Department P.O.BOX 331 Bujumbura Burundi

Objectives EAC 5-year Meteorological Development Plan and Investment Strategy WMO Severe Weather Forecasting and Demonstartion Projject( SWFDP) Objectives Overall objective : Developing capabilities of the NMS to deliver cost effective and efficient, authoritative, reliable and quality assured weather/climate services and products that will, among others, contribute to safety of life, protection of property and environment in support of sustainable development. Specific objectives: Coordinate (with the support of WMO) the implementation of the SWFDP in Eastern Africa (full demonstration “Phase 4”) for improving severe weather forecasting in the EAC region, in support of disater risk reduction and climate change adaptation; (EAC strategy 2.3. iv) The main objective of the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) is to test the usefulness of the products currently available from NWP centres, or products that could be made available from current NWP systems, with the goal to improve severe weather forecasting services in countries where sophisticated model outputs are not currently used. Specific goals: According to the recommendations of the Commission of Basic System (CBS-XIII ) in 2005, the goals of the SWFDP are as follows: 1.to improve the ability of NMCs to forecast severe weather events; 2.to improve the lead time of alerting of these events; 3.to improve interaction of NMCs with DMCPA before and during events; 4.to identify gaps and areas for improvements; 5.to improve the skill of products from Global Data Processing and Forecasting System( GDPFS) centres through feedback from NMCs.

Severe weather events Currently the SWFDP focuses on the following severe weather events: Heavy rain/flooding Deficit of precipitation/dry spells; Strong winds in relation to thunderstorms Hazardous waves over Indian Ocean and major lakes in the region

Extreme Weather Events and Associated Impacts Sector Type of Hazard ( extreme weather event) Heavy rains /floodingDry spells/drought Strong winds Settlement, Health, Public Safety  Drowning leading to loss of life  Eruption of vector and water borne diseases such as malaria, and diarrheal diseases  Disruption of human settlement  Disruption of communication systems  Deterioration of water quality  Famine and malnutrition  Disruption of human settlement  Damage to socio- economic infrastructure (schools, health centres, etc.) Agriculture and Food Security  Damages to crops  Water logging  Leaching of soil nutrients  Top soil erosion  Increased susceptibility of livestock and crops to pests and diseases  Crop failure  Loss of vegetation  Food shortages  food insecurity  General starvation of people and livestock in the affected areas  Physical damages to crops Water Resources  Rising water levels in rivers resulting in destruction of bridges  Deterioration of water quality  Mudflow and heavy sedimentation in rivers  Water shortages  Loss of vegetation  Sea level rise  Coastal flooding

The Cascading Forecasting Process In the framework of the general organization of the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), the SWFDP implies a co-ordinated functioning among three types of GDPFS centres. These are:  Global NWP Centres to provide available NWP products, including in the form of probabilities;  Regional Centres to interpret information received from the global NWP centres,  run limited-area models to refine products,  liaise with the participating NMCs;  The NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings;  to liaise and collaborate with Media, and Disaster Management and CivilPprotection Authorities; and  to contribute to the evaluation of the project.

Cascading FCST ( cont’d) The first phase of this project commenced October 2011 and focused on: heavy rain, strong winds, sea/lake waves, and prolonged dry spells. The participating Services and Centres in the SWFDP Eastern Africa include: NMHSs : Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda Regional Centres : RSMC, KMD - Nairobi, RSMC, TMA - Dar es Salaam; and Global Products Centres: Exeter (Met Office UK), Washington (NOAA/NCEP ), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast( ECMWF). and DWD (Germany)

Strategies for disaster risk reduction Socio-economic sectorPolicy, Plan and strategy National Meteorological Service( NMS)  Forecasts of impeding extreme weather/climate events (heavy rains, dry spells, drought, strong winds, etc ) should be made, and  timely information be disseminated to the relevant institutions and communities that are most likely to be affected Human Settlement, Health and Public Safety  Database on risks and vulnerability in human settlement, health and public safety should be developed for effective monitoring and early warning in the sectors  Communities should be educated and made aware of types of weather/climate hazards that can affect their areas, including preparedness and mitigation strategies  Strong disaster management committees should be set up in all administrative regions and local authorities with the aim of mobilizing resources for disaster risk reduction Agriculture and Food Security  Development of management and coordination structure for weather and climate information in the agriculture disaster early warning units  Strengthening of the existing agricultural early warning units by factoring weather and climate information in the planning, intervention and recovery  Establishment of clear linkages and information flow between the agricultural early warning units, and the National Disaster Management Office for effective usage of weather/climate early warning reports for effective disaster management

Strategies ( cont’d) Socio-economic sectorPolicy, Plan and strategy Water  Enhance meteorological observations and river-gauging networks  Identify, monitor, assess and zone areas that are prone to weather and climate related disasters in the region  Collaborate to create an integrated water resources database for research and development  Participate in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) project initiative to improve the climate and water data quality and quantity  Collaborate to revise the water and meteorological policies in such a way weather/climate is adequately factored into the water resources planning and management Disaster Management and Civil Protection Authorities  The Disaster Management and Civil Protection Office should be strengthened  The Disaster Management and Civil Protection Office should strengthen the capacity of vulnerable sectors and communities to cope with extreme weather/climate trough disaster preparedness strategies

Concluding Remarks Various economic sectors are highly dependant on and influenced by weather and climate A clear knowledge of current and expected conditions of weather and climate provides the vital information for important decisions in long-range planning of these sectors Each NMHSs contributes to the disaster management through its forecasts, advisories and warnings of severe weather, and the monitoring of climate. WMO SWFDP Synergy with the EAC’s Five-years Meteorological Development Plan and Investment Strategy ( ) would enhance early warning system for disaster risk reduction in the EAC region.

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