Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13.

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Presentation transcript:

Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services (Macao, China, 8-13 April 2013) 1.Son-tinh (1223) 2.Kai-tak (1213)

Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223) NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct Initial

Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)

NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct Initial Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)

NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct Initial Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)

NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct Initial Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)

NWP models outputs: 12UTC, 24 Oct Initial Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)

JMA Surface analysis at 12UTC, 24 Oct Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223) TS SON-TINH (1223) 998 hPa 11.6N 125.8E NW 13KT MAX WINDS 35KT

JMA 850hPa analysis at 12UTC, 24 Oct Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)

JMA 500hPa analysis at 12UTC, 24 Oct Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)

Let’s make a forecast of the tropical cyclone. Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223)  Determine the center position of 1.FT24 (18UTC, 25 Oct.) 2.FT48 (18UTC, 26 Oct.) 3.FT72 (18UTC, 27 Oct.)  Describe how to determine those centers.

Practical 1: Son-tinh (1223) TS SON-TINH (1223) 996 hPa 11.9N 122.3E WNW 14KT MAX WINDS 40KT Let’s make a forecast of the tropical cyclone.

Practical (case study) Forecasting Tropical cyclones 1.Son-tinh (1223) 2.Kai-tak (1213)

Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213) NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug Initial

Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)

NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug Initial Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)

NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug Initial Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)

NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug Initial Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)

NWP models outputs: 00UTC, 14 Aug Initial Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)

JMA Surface analysis at 00UTC, 14 Aug Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213) TS KAI-TAK (1213) 992 hPa 17.5N 126.5E WNW SLOWLY MAX WINDS 40KT

JMA 850hPa analysis at 00UTC, 14 Aug Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)

JMA 500hPa analysis at 00UTC, 14 Aug Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)

Let’s make a forecast of the tropical cyclone.  Determine the center position of 1.FT24 (06UTC, 15 AUg.) 2.FT48 (06UTC, 16 Oct.) 3.FT72 (06UTC, 17 Oct.)  Describe how to determine those centers. Practical 2: Kai-tak (1213)

TS KAI-TAK (1213) 992 hPa 17.7N 125.2E WNW 07KT MAX WINDS 40KT Let’s make a forecast of the tropical cyclone.