tion to ange and d Bank Adaptation to Climate Change and the World Bank Ian Noble

The poor will face the greatest challenges from climate change. 2 Billion people in developing countries affected by a climate related disaster in the 1990s. Double in the 2000s? 40 to 80% of the population in developing countries versus a few % in more developed countries

Guidance for TNA Identify vulnerable sectors Prioritise the list of measures Compile list of measures Prioritise Developing Country Development decision Other Lenders & Donors World Bank Local social, economic, environmental and political pressures Climate Change Most development decisions

Investment flow UNFCCC

Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems Messages to my Bank colleagues And is relevant to project planning Implicit: “And your project could be next!”

year % rainfall variability GDP growth Ag GDP growth Ethiopia A water rich developing country, but with GDP still tied to yearly rainfall variations Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia From Claudia Sadoff Climate variability is already a major impediment to development.

Model of 12 years of growth using Smoothed (average rainfall) A simulated 2- year drought Realistic variability Including climate variability gives a different picture of growth prospects Ethiopia 1%

Using variable rainfall gives a more balanced outcome for investments in irrigation versus roads

right now Climate change is a development issue – right now Should we use the term “climate proofing”?

A climate risk approach Climate risk management means that the Bank should assess, and where necessary act upon, the threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change, in all project and country level activities. Sub text: Climate volatility is another factor that must be taken into account in development planning

How are we going? Currently only 17 out of 73 CASs and 4 out of 35 completed PRSPs refer to the potential effects of climate change. Of the 17 CASs only 8 have a clear statement about adaptation

Pitfalls “Projectisation” of adaptation –Separates adaptation form core development planning –Often embroils adaptation in institutional rivalries Not appreciating the immediacy Endless loop of “better information” –Downscaling & impact modelling Seeking the ideal at the expense of the pragmatic –E.g. Seeking only ‘adaptation with mitigation’ synergies

Next steps Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA

Next steps Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries –Simple screening tool –Readily available tools for ‘downscaling’ and impact assessment –Linking the biophysical and the socio-economic analyses Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA

Structure of AP Analysis Hydrological data Meteorological data Agricultural data Agro-meteorological model Crop yield and production, livestock losses model Drought mitigation strategies Probabilistic drought risk assessment model Direct agricultural loss estimates Macro Economic analysis Direct and indirect economic losses State fiscal exposure Risk financing arrangements Rainfall simulator Climate change scenarios Planting areas model Hydrological model 

Integrated Tool

Next steps Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation –Effective use of GEF resources –These are critical “pump priming” funds Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA

Next steps Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) and PRSPs –Approach with caution –Let’s provide the “carrots” first (e.g. the tools etc) before appearing to threaten with a “stick”

Next steps Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA Ultimately climate volatility should be treated as other volatilities (commodity prices, exchange rates, social volatilities etc) in development planning

A Screening & Design Tool for Considering Adaptation to Climate Change

Screening & design tool Target Audience: Project developers (national, bilateral and multilateral) and assessors; NGOs Not community level decision making –This is a different, and critically important task –Seek compatibility and synergies Contact Ian Noble World Bank Purpose: Provide a first, quick check of potential issues that might arise in project design or implementation Provide a lead into appropriate knowledge & experience Increase awareness of the issues of climate variability and change

Screening & design tool Levels of advice provided –Red flag –Red flag – adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended –Yellow flag –Yellow flag – some concerns, which should be checked –Orange –Orange – Not enough known to assess –Green flag –Green flag – No adaptation issues foreseen –Blue flag –Blue flag – Positive action for adaptation Contact Ian Noble World Bank Based on existing knowledge Captured via expert systems to identify key activities that might be sensitive to climate variability & change Qualitative climate change data based combining models and current trends Qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities Pointers to appropriate literature, projects, tolls and experts

A framework for a screening & design tool User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options What do project managers need?

A framework for a screening & design tool User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options Good Practice Interpretation Bring together the expanding database of information Additional tools Document database Project database Experts

A framework for a screening & design tool User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options Provide a screening tool to guide user to appropriate material Additional tools Document database Project database Experts Risk elements & Location Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) Activities Climate sensitivit y Climate parameter (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate parameter Location Projected direction of climate change Technical complexity – Multiple models – changing data bases

A framework for a screening & design tool User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options Based on best expert advice? Additional tools Document database Project database Experts Risk elements & Location Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) Activities Climate sensitivit y Climate parameter (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate parameter Location Projected direction of climate change Selected scenarios and current trends Expert assessment of relevant activities Expert assessment of sensitivities

A framework for a screening & design tool User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options What does the user see? Additional tools Document database Project database Experts Risk elements & Location Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) Activities Climate sensitivit y Climate parameter (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate parameter Location Projected direction of climate change Relevant guidance to … gdfsgfd Leading to … A series of questions about their project

T ool for A daptation to C limate C hange TACC

Help about the question and about each option Ability to change ones mind

Users are asked to identify the location of their project. This can either be via lat-long coordinates or pointing to a map The underlying climate change data base will be based on expert assessment of the various models and of recent trends. A composite map representing climate change for each variable over the next 20 to 30 years will be prepared.

Printed summary

Printed list of documents

Most documents can be displayed from the Tool An identified climate sensitive activity – yellow flag An explanation of the rating Useful documents

Simple Expert System

The tool is being designed and implemented initially in Excel. It has a number of tools to help users to expand or modify the knowledge base. Later it will be converted to a web-based script. The tool and many of the documents will fit on a CD

Adaptation in the Bank Climate change is already a threat to development A risk management approach (tackle current climate variability and climate change) Learn through pilots and ESW Develop good practice guidance and tools for project designers Goal to treat climate volatility as an essential part of development planning