CGE Training materials - Mitigation Assessment Module F Reporting Mitigation in National Communications and Biennial Update Reports Module F: Reporting of mitigation assessments in national communications The objective of this module is to remind participants of the elements of the reporting guidelines and to provide suggestions to improve the presentation of the mitigation assessment section in the second and subsequent national communications in a consistent, transparent, comparable and flexible manner according to the UNFCCC guidelines for the preparation of national communications from non-Annex I Parties.

Module Objectives and Expectations Objective: Provide participants with an overview of how to report on Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in National Communications and biennial reports including: Reporting commitments Suggestions for reporting formats and approaches. Expectations: Participants will have a broad but sound understanding of how to report on GHG mitigation in National Communications and biennial reports.

Module Outline Reporting Commitments and Guidelines Suggestions for Reporting (National Communications)

Module F1 Reporting Commitments and Guidelines 4

Reporting Commitments - Convention Article 4.1 of the Convention requires each Party to: Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national or, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change Article 12.1 the Convention requires each Party to communicate: A general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention Any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the objectives of the Convention. Article 4, Paragraph 1 – taking into account each Party’s common but differentiated responsibilities and specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances.

National Communications and Biennial Reports Guidelines for Non-Annex I countries adopted in 2002 (decision 17/CP.8) Biennial reports: Guidelines for Non-Annex I countries adopted in 2011 (decision 2/CP.17, Annex III).

Guidelines for National Communications Objectives Principal objectives: To assist non-Annex (NAI) Parties in meeting their reporting requirements To encourage the presentation of information in a consistent, transparent, comparable and flexible manner To facilitate the presentation of information on support required for the preparation of national communications To serve as policy guidance to the operating entity of the financial mechanism of the Convention, for the timely provision of financial support needed by NAI Parties To ensure that the Conference of Parties (COP) has sufficient information to carry out its responsibility for assessing the implementation of the Convention by Parties. Paragraph 1 of 17/CP.8

Guidelines for National Communications - Scope National greenhouse gas (GHG) Inventory A general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention Any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its communication. Paragraph 2 of Guidelines

Guidelines – National Circumstances NAI Parties should provide a description of their national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, on the basis of which they will address climate change (para.3 of annex to decision 17/CP.8) Description of existing institutional arrangements relevant to the preparation of their national communications on a continuous basis (para.5) Paragraphs 3-5 of the Guidelines Information on national circumstances provides the opportunity for detailing the national or regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances that serve as the basis for addressing issues relating to climate change. It is critical for understanding a country’s vulnerability, its capacity and its options for adapting to the adverse effects of climate change, as well as its options for addressing its GHG emissions within the broader context of sustainable development. All sections and subject areas should refer back to the national situation and development priorities. Parties could also include information on the linkages between the activities and policies relating to climate change and those of other Conventions, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention on Combating Desertification. This section could contain the following information: • Geographical characteristics, including climate, forests, land use and other environmental characteristics • Population: growth rates, distribution, density and other vital statistics • Economy, including energy, transport, industry, mining, tourism, agriculture, fisheries, waste, health and services sector • Education, including scientific and technical research institutions • Any information considered relevant by the Party. A description of institutional arrangements relevant to the preparation of the national communications on a continuous basis could include the following elements: • Distribution of responsibilities within government departments, universities, research institutions, etc. • National Climate Change Committees or other relevant coordinating bodies • Involvement and participation of other stakeholders • Technical/expert groups or teams.

Guidelines – General Description of Steps Each NAI Party shall…communicate to the COP a general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention, taking into account its common but differentiated responsibilities and its specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances (para.25) NAI Parties may provide information on programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emission by sources and removals by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol... (para.26). Paragraphs 25 and 26 of the Guidelines

Guidelines (cont.) – Mitigation Measures Each Party shall provide information on … steps taken or envisaged for formulating, implementing, publishing and regularly updating national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change…and any other information they consider to be relevant…(para.37) Paragraph 37 of the Guidelines Although developing countries are not required to take on emission reduction commitments, undertaking climate change mitigation and assessment could provide ancillary benefits for sustainable development, such as particulate pollution reduction, increase in technological efficiency and effectiveness, improvements in the security and availability of power supply, reduction in road congestion when a shift from private to public transport takes place, and increase in employment resulting from mitigation projects. Based on national circumstances, non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide, to the extent their capacities allow, information on programmes and measures implemented or planned, which contribute to mitigating climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, including, as appropriate, relevant information by key sectors on methodologies, scenarios, results, measures and institutional arrangements. In order to improve the understanding of the potential for mitigation effort in the country, it is important to describe the technical resources used in the mitigation assessment by explaining: • What it is/what they are • How and in what sectors of the economy does/do it/they apply • Data and/or information gaps • Limitations of the technical resources. Information could include: • Description of approaches used to conduct mitigation analysis, e.g. top-down or bottom-up • Description of a variety of tools/models and methods used to assess the mitigation.

Guidelines (cont.) - Methodological Approaches Based on national circumstances, NAI Parties are encouraged to use whatever methods are available and appropriate in order to formulate and prioritize programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change... (para.38) In their assessment of these programmes on various sectors of the economy, NAI Parties may use the appropriate technical resources (para.39) Mitigation assessment should entail the generation of information on the national or regional analysis of the potential costs and impacts of the various technologies and practices to mitigate climate change. The information should be relevant for sustainable development and useful for policy makers, e.g. to help formulate and prioritize mitigation programmes. There are several methods and models that may be used in mitigation assessment, ranging from a broad description of main development trends and statistics to formalized modelling at sector and macro-economic levels. Many of these methods and models are provided in a number of technical resources. Because mitigation assessment may include a detailed evaluation of specific programmes and policies, the steps taken should be well elaborated and should include the description of: • The social and economic development framework for climate change mitigation • The main national economic and social development trends including expected GHG emissions in energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land-use change and forestry and waste management. In order to improve the understanding of the potential for mitigation effort in the country, it is important to describe the technical resources used in the mitigation assessment by explaining: What they are How and in what sectors do they apply Data and/or information gaps Limitations of the technical resources. Could include: descriptions of approaches used to conduct the analysis (e.g. top down or bottom up); description of tools/models and methods used to assess

Guidelines for Preparation of Biennial Update Reports by Non-Annex I Parties Objectives include: To encourage the presentation of information in a consistent, transparent, complete, accurate and timely manner, taking into account specific national and domestic circumstances; To enable enhanced reporting by NAI Parties on mitigation actions and their effects, needs and support received, in accordance with their national circumstances, capacities and respective capabilities, and the availability of support; To provide policy guidance to an operating entity of the financial mechanism for the timely provision of financial support needed by developing country Parties in order to meet the agreed full costs of preparing their biennial update reports; To facilitate the presentation of information on finance, technology and capacity-building support needed and received, including for the preparation of biennial update reports.

Biennial Reports - Scope Provide an update to the most recently submitted national communication in the following areas: National circumstances and institutional arrangements National GHG inventory Information on mitigation actions and their effects, including associated methodologies and assumptions Constraints and gaps, and related financial, technical and capacity needs, including a description of support needed and received Information on the level of support received to enable the preparation and submission of biennial update reports Information on domestic measurement reporting and verification Any other information the Party considers relevant to achieve objectives of the Convention.

Biennial Reports – Mitigation Reporting For each mitigation action or group of mitigation actions…provide the following information to the extent possible: Name and description of the mitigation action, including information on the nature of the action, coverage (i.e. sectors and gases), quantitative goals and progress indicators Information on methodologies and assumptions Objectives of the action and steps taken or envisaged to achieve that action Information on the progress of implementation of the mitigation actions and the underlying steps taken or envisaged, and the results achieved, such as estimated outcomes (metrics depending on type of action) and estimated emissions reductions, to the extent possible Information on international market mechanisms. Parties should provide information on the description of domestic measurement, reporting and verification arrangements.

Timing of Submission of Reporting NAI Parties shall submit: National communications every four years and, Biennial update reports every two years, either as: A summary of parts of their national communication in the year when national communication is submitted, or, A stand-alone update report NAI Parties, consistent with their capabilities and level of support provided for reporting, should submit their first biennial update report by December 2014. Least developed country (LDC) Parties and small island developing States may submit biennial update reports at their discretion.

Conclusion – Reporting Mitigation assessments and reporting form an important part of Parties’ national communications on climate change They are read both by the international scientific community and by national and international policy makers They therefore need both a high level of scientific rigor and a high level of clarity and comprehensibility.

Module F2 Suggestions for Reporting (National Communications)

General Reporting Suggestions National communications: Summarize the main findings of mitigation assessment, e.g. by scenario, sector, and strategy Present mitigation options considered, and how national objectives and circumstance were taken into account Describe overall assessment methodology Explain scenario definitions, particularly how reference or business as usual (BAU) scenario is defined Discuss the uncertainties associated with findings, along with suggestions for future assessments. Biennial reports: Draw upon best practices in national communications and other published national reports and analyses.

Mitigation Reporting – Example Headings Introduction and context Description of baseline and mitigation scenarios Methodologies, data sources, assumptions, results (energy, GHG emissions, other impacts) Mitigation initiatives planned or underway, including supportive legislation and programmes Non-quantified/assessed strategies such as awareness-raising efforts.

Scenario Definitions, Data and Assumptions Reporting on scenarios should describe: How the baseline scenario(s) was framed (e.g. inclusion or exclusion of recent policies) How the mitigation scenario(s) was framed (e.g. technology focused, examining all measures up to some specified cost level, etc.) Any sensitivity analyses that were conducted. Reporting on data and assumptions can include: Macroeconomic and demographic variables (population, GDP, urbanization, etc.) Fuel price assumptions Discount rates Activity levels and energy intensities (describe base year and projections) Major assumptions in each sector Factors and assumptions used in emissions calculations. Supplementary documentation or reports may be appropriate for more detailed information.

Key Assumptions for Scenario Projections: Example from Rwanda’s 2nd National Communication Documentation of macroeconomic variables used in scenario analysis: annual growth rates and projections for baseline and mitigation scenarios. Rwanda’s 2nd national communication provides a good example of documentation and reporting of macroeconomic variables used in the scenario analysis. For baseline and mitigation scenarios (2005-2030), they suggest: population annual growth of 2.5% for mitigation and 3% for baseline; GDP annual growth of 8% for mitigation and 6% for baseline. Source: Rwanda’s 2nd National Communication: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/rwanc2.pdf Table 35. Projections of key hypotheses. Table Source: RNIS: Rwanda Development Indicators, 2006; MINECOFIN: Vision 2020; Expert Judgment.

Suggestions for Reporting Quantitative Results Follow international scientific practices for documentation and referencing of data sources Specify units consistently, for example: Expressing all GHG emissions results in metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2eq) can simplify comparison across gases, sectors and countries Use of standard energy units (e.g. GJ, GWh, TOE) can simplify understanding across national communications Back up charts with numeric tables for clarity.

Options for Displaying Emissions Results Charts can provide important visual tools for conveying mitigation findings. Options include, among others: Charts for individual scenarios and indicators, e.g. baseline GHG emissions over time Easiest to create and interpret “Jaws/Wedge” charts Enables presentation of baseline and mitigation scenario results, along with emissions reductions (by sector, strategy, or other category) in a single chart “Waterfall” charts Displays and explains incremental emissions benefits for individual strategies.

Example Chart: Emissions by Sector in a Mitigation Scenario and Emissions Avoided vs. a Baseline Scenario Baseline emissions avoided

Example of “Jaws/Wedge” Chart

Example from Mexico’s Low-Carbon Scenario: “Jaws/Wedge” Chart by Sector Another jaws/wedge chart example, by sector, from a Mexican low carbon development study. Source: “Low Carbon Development for Mexico” Todd M. Johnson, Claudio Alatorre, Zayra Romo, Feng Liu. World Bank. 2010. http://www.embarq.org/sites/default/files/LowCarbonDevelopmentMexico.pdf En español: “México: Estudio sobre la Disminución de Emisiones de Carbono (MEDEC)” Figure 1 Projected Emissions Reduction by Sector under the MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario Source: World Bank, “Low Carbon Development for Mexico”

Example of Waterfall Chart: Effects of behavioural changes on GHG emissions Behavioral changes chart source: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=ISR/COM/2%20E#beg

Example of Mitigation Options Considered Key sector mitigation options source: http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/malaysia_snc.pdf Table 3.1: Potential Mitigation Options in Key Sectors

Examples of Cost Tables and Curves Breakdown of costs for a mitigation option under two scenarios (2010-2030) Table source: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/lebanon_snc.pdf Table 3-7: Breakdown of the cost of mitigation option 1 under scenario A and scenario B for the period 2010-2030 Cost curve source: Mexico Marginal abatement cost curve example (2020)

Other Suggestions for Reporting in National Communications If assessed, present findings for: Macroeconomic impacts of the mitigation scenarios on the wider economy Other social and environmental indicators. Discuss barriers and needs: Discuss any barriers to implementing the envisaged mitigation options and the types of policies (national and international) that could help implement the identified mitigation options Identify capacity-building needs for the identification, evaluation and implementation of mitigation policies and measures Identify long-term needs for education and building public awareness on climate change issues.

Excerpts from Mitigation Chapters Some national communications submitted to date include the following mitigation policies and measures: Bhutan: Constitutional mandate to maintain 60% of land under forest cover at all times Expansion of installed hydropower capacity to 10,000 MW by 2020 A strategy to maintain carbon neutral status is under development. Iran: Increase energy efficiency of end-use sectors (demand side) at the rate of 2% per year until 2025 Increase the share of compressed natural gas (CNG) in transport from 2.5% in 2007 to 25% in 2025 at the rate of 1.25% per year Increase the share of natural gas in the industry sector from 59.4% in 2007 to 82% in 2025 at the constant rate of 1.8% per year (Iran).

Excerpts from Mitigation Chapters Status of implementation of the some of the mitigation actions, South Africa Potential mitigation actions Status of implementation Financial measures Imposition of carbon tax Levy on electricity generated from fossil fuel already in place Carbon tax on new vehicles already implemented Universal carbon tax under consideration Emissions trading Discussion paper under development Energy sector Support measures for mitigation actions in energy sector Introduction of tax rebate for savings as a result of energy efficiency Subsidy to promote installation of solar water heaters Support for use of energy efficient lighting